Jump to content



Photo

Bullish Case Shaken But Not Dead Yet ...


  • Please log in to reply
19 replies to this topic

#1 thoughtpwr

thoughtpwr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,269 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 09:02 AM

Although the sell off after the Fed Minutes was a shock to me, and looks initially like it is very bearish for market, I think there is a glimmer of the bull present with the right actions today.

 

First yesterday was an Outside Day Down, which in a bull market has a potential buy signal if SPY gets to Buy = Open + 20% Range = Open + 0.57 = 235.52, which is a ways up there at the open. The outside day down normally gets oversold and can generate a rally to follow in the next two days if it is triggered.

 

Secondly, this sell off may in fact be wave 2 of a complete 1 off of the bottom, which is quite possible given the look as long as 234.5 holds today or any day. 

 

The $NYMO ended the day at zero, so this is a potential trend change if we go up today.

 

So far in the first 30 minutes the SPY and several stronger stocks like WDC, SODA, & EBAY ( and now even the weaker ondes) have overcome their 80 min MOVs.  If they can rally sufficiently above them and back kiss that MOV, we may be off to a decent rally to attempt the 235.5 area.

 

Most of these stocks have a positive divergence in place on the 1 min time frame; while a couple are in place on 5 min scale. Whether that will hold or not is another question.

 

This AM should tell the story.


Edited by thoughtpwr, 06 April 2017 - 09:08 AM.


#2 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,936 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 09:17 AM

NQ 5435 held as resistance as expected...big pivot just put in methinks.

 

Now we see for real if bears about to take control for a while.....

 

Back above the right shoulder of that intraday H&S, and I would be inclined to relinquish shorts...but until then, this could easily start to escalate to the downside now....

 

next 15-30 min may tell the tale.....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#3 thoughtpwr

thoughtpwr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,269 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 10:26 AM

After a 1.5 hour long struggle, the SPY had gotten above 235.52 with some margin, which should kick-in the Outside Day Down Buy. We should challenge 236 next, with the issue of getting above it by the close and closer to 236.5.



#4 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,936 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 10:28 AM

Bulls trying....covered last of shorts and flipped long at 5431....

 

This could just be a final fakeout move, before resuming downtrend, and if so, will reverse short.

 

In the mean time, bulls obviously have more juice than I expected, so will respect that...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,936 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 10:44 AM

moment of truth for rest of today may be dead ahead....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 thoughtpwr

thoughtpwr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,269 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:04 AM

One comment about the Outside Day Down trade.  It normally gets out at the following day's open, which implies that if the buy is successful, it carries over into the next day's open, based upon the history of the trade. Its win rate is 82%.



#7 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,936 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:12 AM

startin' to look like bulls outta gas...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,936 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:17 AM

NQ looking to enter the air gap zone on 1 min chart....


Edited by K Wave, 06 April 2017 - 11:17 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 kinga200

kinga200

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 594 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:18 AM

startin' to look like bulls outta gas...

Financials sure are...



#10 thoughtpwr

thoughtpwr

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,269 posts

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:24 AM

Market is sandwiched between the 160 and 320 min MOVs and unless it gets above the 320, things could get real ugly fast.

 

The market doesn't look impulsive at this point, but is within a well defined channel. It needs to get to 235.9-236 before consolidating again above the 320 MOV.

 

I am not so sure about the financials being a weak link here after you brought my attention to them. GS rose very quickly this morning and got above the 320 MOV early and the 160 is now crossing through the 320, so I would actually say it is part of the strength in the market. It's the over all market SPY that still needs to get above the 320 MOV


Edited by thoughtpwr, 06 April 2017 - 11:28 AM.