3 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Time to RALLY!!!!

 

 

M

[lawdog]

I agree it is time to rally, but what is the message when it is time and does not? The market since November has rallied when it became this oversold, but is failing to do so now. Markets that fail when oversold become more oversold. This is the essence of my current bearish stance.

 

Also, what is the message of the FF polls? Weekly is presently 2/9. I have expressed my observation that I often read the poll as a contrary indicator, so being one of the 9 bears concerns me. However, to the FF'ers' credit, the weekly got it right at Nov. 4 with 6/2 and was slightly more bears than bulls during the October pullback. But going back to the last decline of significance, the last weekly poll on 12/24/15 before the Jan 2016 drop was 9/6, then there were no weeklies til 1/15/16, which was 9/6, which was a bit early, but not bad; the dailies at the end of Dec. 2015 were slightly bearish and were slightly bearish most days during this decline, other than the forecast for 12/31/15, which was strongly bearish, and properly so, FL/FS of 2/7. The daily for Monday so far is only FL/FS of 1/2, not near the current weekly of 2/9. This analysis gives me some confidence that I should not read the poll as a strong contrary indicator here, so it will not cause me to doubt my conclusion as to the probable coming drop in the averages.

[SemiBizz]

Look, we're going into a 4 day holiday week, volume is expected to decline and a rally is favored under such conditions in a (still) bull market.

 

You don't need sentiment, all you need is a calendar.

 

The thing everyone should be very careful of is the INFAMOUS THREE DAY WEEKEND.

 

Whatever moves the handlers have in mind for us, is likely to be made over the 3 day decay.

Edited by SemiBizz, 09 April 2017 - 11:20 AM.

[tradesurfer]

Well there are a bunch of things going on.  I see inverse head and shoulder patterns in IWM and SPX which argues SPX moves back up to 2395 this week.

 

But the 2395 to 2390 is also a harmonic resistance zone.  It is also a potential reversal zone of a bearish fib pattern.

 

So if the market does rally up to that zone it will likely be by Thursday before the 3 day weekend.  So that would put the market right at this potential fib rejection zone to complete the bearish gartley pattern.

 

So then if we create that high on Thursday of this week, we wait for the next weeks trading after the long holiday weekend.

 

That week to start is supposedly the beginning of high volatility.  Then the week after that is higher volaitility.  And then the week after that, starting May 1st is the highest volatility all according to armstrongs computer:

 

So it could be that the 'dream short' is entered right on Thursday at 3:59 PM.