Mark S. Young
Posted 11 April 2017 - 10:47 AM
They really telegraphed this decline yesterday. Big (weird) spike in the VIX, high OEX (smart mnoey) P/C, and an Options Oscillator Sell (dumb options money to exploit).
And of course, my hourly never gave me anything like a short set up. Some days, I think you just toss all your stuff out and trade the sentiment set up and resistance and support. 
M
Mark S Young
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Member
Posted 11 April 2017 - 11:26 AM
That's great, but there is always the next trade. It's like a dog chasing a hubcap: what's he going to do with it once he catches it? Fine, we dropped and some maybe caught the decline, but now 1/2 of the drop has been retraced. Do you take the gift offered by the bulls and short again (more), or is it a bottom and time to look for longs? It never ends and it's never obvious until it has happened. But nothing is ever obvious before it happens, certainly not yesterday and certainly not right now with the spx rebounding from -18 to -9. There will always be the indicator(s) you can look at that called the move, but next time it's different, and the next and the next.
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 11 April 2017 - 11:33 AM
We are in a broadening top sideways move right now and it should be traded as such.
right now we're going to try to test the highs again, unless something ugly takes us down again...
Like this for example: (from Twitter Feed)
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 11 April 2017 - 11:35 AM
Sectors, all about sectors... look how they bought the dip here today in this...
Member
Posted 11 April 2017 - 11:39 AM
We are in a broadening top sideways move right now and it should be traded as such.
right now we're going to try to test the highs again, unless something ugly takes us down again...
Like this for example: (from Twitter Feed)
So does that mean we are at a short term bottom so get out of short etf positions in the spx, go long the spx to 2400?
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 11 April 2017 - 11:52 AM
We are in a broadening top sideways move right now and it should be traded as such.
right now we're going to try to test the highs again, unless something ugly takes us down again...
Like this for example: (from Twitter Feed)
So does that mean we are at a short term bottom so get out of short etf positions in the spx, go long the spx to 2400?
The way I see it, the critical support is 2341, and then if that holds, we have an upside target of 2385, and I don't see any need at all to test the 2400. If we do have a failure, then there are a series of gap fill targets if we have the downside momentum to fill them, and then that would take us to a test of strongest volume support at 2254... I don't foresee that happening this week though, but I could be wrong. Conditions still favor a holiday bounce, but again... stuff comes across the news like this:
NORTH KOREA STATE MEDIA WARNS OF NUCLEAR STRIKE IF PROVOKED
Member
Posted 11 April 2017 - 01:53 PM
They really telegraphed this decline yesterday. Big (weird) spike in the VIX, high OEX (smart mnoey) P/C, and an Options Oscillator Sell (dumb options money to exploit).
And of course, my hourly never gave me anything like a short set up. Some days, I think you just toss all your stuff out and trade the sentiment set up and resistance and support.
M
Everyone I follow on Twitter was bearish yesterday...
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 11 April 2017 - 02:18 PM
just how bearish can we get?
China Threatens To Bomb North Korea's Nuclear Facilities If It Crosses Beijing's "Bottom Line"
Member
Posted 11 April 2017 - 02:46 PM
Sometimes "everyone" is right for a while. When the crowd wants out, the rush to the door can get a lot of people killed. Contrarianism is fine to a point. I still don't know what the heck to do. I have lightened up my short position from 80% to 50%, but I am still short. I wonder if the holiday bounce is what we got this afternoon. But I know the charts are going to look very bullish tonight, i.e. suggesting a rally, but I don't think we have completed this downward move. I hate to lose my position. A bounce back to 2385 is certainly possible and would be very costly to me and make me very sad.Today has been profitable, but still extremely disappointing. I think I will stay comfortable at the 50% short level. This bounce was too easy for the bulls; they need to be "shook up" a little more before this market will be ready to rally in earnest. Back to -8 for the day with 15 minutes to go. Where she stops, no one knows.
Member
Posted 11 April 2017 - 02:47 PM
The problem with N Korea is if you bomb it back to the stoneage, it will be an improvement.
