Then that will be the signal we are going to retrace the post election rally. As well support is building underneath.
If the VXX can break $18.49 with volume...
Started by
kinga200
, Apr 12 2017 03:55 PM
10 replies to this topic
#2
SemiBizz
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Posted 12 April 2017 - 04:39 PM
There's plenty of volume, although it slacked off today a little. From here it's all on the big rumor, will they attack N. Korea or not?
If cooler heads prevail and the hysteria unwinds, this can go all the way back under 16 somewhere...
there is no real joy here for the VIX bulls now until VXX breaks over 20...
Today was full blown hysterical, especially with that last minute stinger from Trump with his comments on the dollar.
Gold bugs frothing ...
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#3
Charvo
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Posted 12 April 2017 - 06:16 PM
The fear factor still hasn't gone crazy high yet because spot VIX is still under April VIX. I'm waiting for the spot VIX to get a spike up to above the April VIX. Anyone shorting VXX is playing with serious fire. The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX.
#4
kinga200
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Posted 12 April 2017 - 06:31 PM
Yes it very telling.
My financial index model with the indicator is where it is...I think we re trace the whole post election move. And more.
Bf the election the trend was clearly down then bam!!
As well after it shorting n holding for 100 SPX points since Jan is making me eat humble pie...or cake 🎂
My financial index model with the indicator is where it is...I think we re trace the whole post election move. And more.
Bf the election the trend was clearly down then bam!!
As well after it shorting n holding for 100 SPX points since Jan is making me eat humble pie...or cake 🎂
#5
tommyt
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Posted 12 April 2017 - 11:33 PM
"There's plenty of volume, although it slacked off today a little. From here it's all on the big rumor, will they attack N. Korea or not?
If cooler heads prevail and the hysteria unwinds, this can go all the way back under 16 somewhere..."
SPX right on the 50d, Mc Osc at 0, and at the lower BB...Semi is right, could try and hold one more time. Gap through would be the killer now. With a long weekend,the crowd will probably be quite nervous going into the weekend sentiment wise. WWW now also...Monday probably the resolution with gappage..
#6
Venatici
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Posted 13 April 2017 - 12:40 AM
Hello Charvo,
Can you clarify or provide further detail on "The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX." part?
Many thanks,
The fear factor still hasn't gone crazy high yet because spot VIX is still under April VIX. I'm waiting for the spot VIX to get a spike up to above the April VIX. Anyone shorting VXX is playing with serious fire. The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX.
#7
Charvo
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Posted 13 April 2017 - 06:56 AM
Hello Charvo,
Can you clarify or provide further detail on "The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX." part?
Many thanks,
The fear factor still hasn't gone crazy high yet because spot VIX is still under April VIX. I'm waiting for the spot VIX to get a spike up to above the April VIX. Anyone shorting VXX is playing with serious fire. The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX.
If you go to vixcentral.com, you can see a chart of the backwardation.
When the front month VIX future (currently April) is ahead of the next month (May), you have a condition called backwardation which is very bullish for VXX since VXX has a bunch of the April VIX futures but has to sell a little every day in order to buy the May VIX future. This really boosts the return. Backwardation is a rarity in terms of actually happening, but this backwardation is a biggie.
#8
K Wave
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Posted 13 April 2017 - 08:26 AM
Today was full blown hysterical, especially with that last minute stinger from Trump with his comments on the dollar.
Would not be surprised if trump nailed a swing low in Dollar with that comment.. USDJPY with long pull back to 200 day MA here, and would be perfect place to reverse it.
Back above 110 would probably mean swing low is in....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#9
K Wave
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Posted 13 April 2017 - 08:30 AM
And check out the weekly wedgie in USDCHF...that is one helluva base formed....if it breaks back above 101, could be off to the races for a long time to come.....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#10
Venatici
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Posted 13 April 2017 - 10:25 AM
Thank you!
I ran a search once I posted my question and indeed found that great chart from vixcentral.com and few good posts on why backwardation can sometimes be seen in VIX albeit less common.
Hello Charvo,
Can you clarify or provide further detail on "The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX." part?
Many thanks,
The fear factor still hasn't gone crazy high yet because spot VIX is still under April VIX. I'm waiting for the spot VIX to get a spike up to above the April VIX. Anyone shorting VXX is playing with serious fire. The setup with the backwardation is really bullish for VXX.
If you go to vixcentral.com, you can see a chart of the backwardation.
When the front month VIX future (currently April) is ahead of the next month (May), you have a condition called backwardation which is very bullish for VXX since VXX has a bunch of the April VIX futures but has to sell a little every day in order to buy the May VIX future. This really boosts the return. Backwardation is a rarity in terms of actually happening, but this backwardation is a biggie.
