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More wave 3 confirmation and outlook/perspective


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#11 senorBS

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 12:18 PM

Senor, I find it odd that the HUI is showing weakness relative to gold on the daily chart over the last 2 months.

I think there is too much worry about that, if the analysis is correct on gold and silver these ratios will IMO take care of themselves, one can always find things to nitpick about if they try hard enough. For me it looks bullish at this time, I remain long and will of course look for alternate counts and have stops in place.

 

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#12 senorBS

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 12:20 PM

And, as you probably know, the Silver COT commercials net short position from last week was an all time record at -112,346 contracts.

 

Usually the Commercials get it right, but perhaps they wake up one morning soon and discover that this time they are the Patsies.

They have a lot of contracts to buy back, thereby powering your silver price projection.

here again with the charts IN MY OPINION looking bullish I won't ignore the commercials or not watch the charts for signs I am wrong, but I am going with what I believe is bullish looking price and technical action, we will see and everyone has to make up there own minds what they think is most important

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 15 April 2017 - 12:20 PM.


#13 gannman

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 12:31 PM

exactly the charts are bullish i think we started a wave 3 up at the end of march and i am just in hold mode right here

 

this wave 3 could very well last the rest of the year and into 2018 i dont know but it would make sense

 

so i am not worried about the commercials short position or any of that the charts look good to me


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#14 senorBS

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 12:38 PM

exactly the charts are bullish i think we started a wave 3 up at the end of march and i am just in hold mode right here

 

this wave 3 could very well last the rest of the year and into 2018 i dont know but it would make sense

 

so i am not worried about the commercials short position or any of that the charts look good to me

I don't know if its happened before in a big way but maybe they (the commercials) are just flat out wrong this time and have to cover in a big way and that just makes this third wave even stronger? Just throwin darts, but like you I believe the charts are bullish and chart action rules the roost for me

 

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#15 Smithy

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 01:08 PM

Yeah, the comm shorts got their tail caught in the door in the bull run in gold from late 2009 to Sept 2011 and had to buy their short contracts back in that period and take the loss...

 

The comms shorting the hell out of gold from the Oct 2008 low up to late 2009 had no effect on the rising price.

 

I find the COT information much more useful in bear markets than bull.



#16 senorBS

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 02:48 PM

Yeah, the comm shorts got their tail caught in the door in the bull run in gold from late 2009 to Sept 2011 and had to buy their short contracts back in that period and take the loss...

 

The comms shorting the hell out of gold from the Oct 2008 low up to late 2009 had no effect on the rising price.

 

I find the COT information much more useful in bear markets than bull.

I don't know if I am way off base but the fact that GDXJ fund managers can't find enough qualified stocks to invest in seems bullish to be, I mean they have reverted to buying GDX! We are only talkin a 5.4 billion dollar fund, what if more "serious" funds ever head the miners way - what is going to happen? Probably just talkin out my rear end but it does make one think

 

BSing away

 

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#17 goldfungus

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 03:48 PM

 

Yeah, the comm shorts got their tail caught in the door in the bull run in gold from late 2009 to Sept 2011 and had to buy their short contracts back in that period and take the loss...

 

The comms shorting the hell out of gold from the Oct 2008 low up to late 2009 had no effect on the rising price.

 

I find the COT information much more useful in bear markets than bull.

I don't know if I am way off base but the fact that GDXJ fund managers can't find enough qualified stocks to invest in seems bullish to be, I mean they have reverted to buying GDX! We are only talkin a 5.4 billion dollar fund, what if more "serious" funds ever head the miners way - what is going to happen? Probably just talkin out my rear end but it does make one think

 

BSing away

 

Senor

 

I guess I should have made the point you are making. I believe, of course, that at some point it will be like putting firehose pressure through a garden hose. The gains could truly be once in a lifetime.



#18 senorBS

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 09:03 AM

perfect KLDX gap fill so far from June of last yr at 3.65, had an order in at 3.66 and added to position, could go lower, GDXJ dogging it again so far

 

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#19 Smithy

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 09:39 AM

Platinum taking off, silver so so



#20 dharma

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 09:50 AM

imo, fwiw, what it shows is how small a market cap this sector has! when it takes off , the door will not be wide enough. 

we take out the down trend line, and that will bring in a whole slew of institutional investors. its going to take some patience right here

 in79- 80 the commercials and exchange members were short and got seriously over run.  no problem the exchange changed the rules no buying of

silver contracts allowed only selling. yes, i said that correctly, the rest is history the hunt brothers were sent away having lost their family fortune.  this time the set up is different w/shanghai exchange and now dubai quatro exchange gaining in prominence. and the sharia. comex and london the den of vipers has lost prominence. so the 2-3 am bombing runs are no longer. taking place. the market has really changed alot. but commercials are still a big factor. 

of interest to me is mercury lord of communication went retrograde on the 9th. venus lord of finances changed directions to direct on the 15th these 2 factors alone can have a big influence on the market.  we will see how. 

dharma