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Crash Monday


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Poll: Monday Crash

How many points will SPX futures be down on Monday morning?

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#11 Iblayz

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Posted 13 April 2017 - 09:22 PM

 

Historically, whenever we see crash on this board, whatever weakness, if any, is about to end

 

Yeah, I wish he hadn't put the C-word in the heading because otherwise there was a good chance it could happen thanks to the red dot at the end of the green squiggle in the middle of the chart below and a break through bottom of the blue box at about 232 on the SPY. That could get a real clear downtrend going and if anyone has noticed NYSE margin debt lately, margin calls might not be far behind.  Below 232, it could be at 229 in a blink, 223 in a wink and 213 in a nod (a November deja vu) but now with this crash question it probably won't happen.

 

At least not just yet.

 

Good luck and good trading.

 

 

 

Somebody's always got to use the word. May be long and hoping......who knows. I was looking at a multi-month chart of the SPX cash on my TOS platform. I like those charts because I can snap trendlines to precise tops and bottoms of selected dates. If there is a way to do that on Stockcharts, I haven't figured it out yet. Anyway, the way it looks to me.....if the SPX loses that 3/27 low on a closing basis (or there is another sign given that it will) the next support line on my chart is at the 2302 area as of today with a slight rise. Close below that and the next line was at the 2244 area today with a somewhat steeper rise. It will be above 2250 in three or four days. We both know that the odds of getting to the lower line soon are somewhat slim. After all, these guys are trying to play a bottom on just about every ten minute bar. NYAD made two or three new all time highs over the last several days. But, unless they can turn the volume component around soon......it don't look good. (And by the way, the post didn't make it.......and shouldn't have as long as it did.)


Edited by Iblayz, 13 April 2017 - 09:24 PM.


#12 andr99

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 01:25 AM

my hope is for a moderate decline, because in different case there will be intervention by central banks and you don' t know how much they can push markets higher.  


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#13 NAV

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 05:55 AM

Over the last 15 years i have been on this board, i have seen at least 10 crash calls every year. Out of that, 2 of them actually materialized.There was one in 2008 which was pretty much a no brainer and everyone called it right. The other one was the flash crash in 2010.

 

2/150 =  1.3% success rate. C'mon guys !

 

I am open to crash calls once the intermediate term turns down. Before that, it just emotionally weak guys making noise on the internet. My intermediate system is close to turning down but not quite. If we trade below SPX 2330 for a week or so here, we could get the IT trend down. 

 

I like trading both sides. Trump rally was the easiest trend trading in a while. If we get the IT down, it could be fun playing the fast moves on the downside. 

 

But alas right at the inflection point the "C" indicator got fired. So we know what's coming next tongue.png


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#14 boruseek

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 06:35 AM

Come on guys. Wasn't it obvious I was being sarcastic with the "widely advertised crash"?

Anyway does anyone seriously believe that saying a word on a message board somehow impacts what the stock market does?

#15 alexnewbee

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 03:05 PM

We will crash, after such a run it is an event with 99% probability. Just look at LT chart. But I doubt we crash just yet, and definitely not on fat Kim's news. We still have some time.

Edited by alexnewbee, 14 April 2017 - 03:06 PM.

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#16 kinga200

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 06:58 PM

Over the last 15 years i have been on this board, i have seen at least 10 crash calls every year. Out of that, 2 of them actually materialized.There was one in 2008 which was pretty much a no brainer and everyone called it right. The other one was the flash crash in 2010.
 
2/150 =  1.3% success rate. C'mon guys !
 
I am open to crash calls once the intermediate term turns down. Before that, it just emotionally weak guys making noise on the internet. My intermediate system is close to turning down but not quite. If we trade below SPX 2330 for a week or so here, we could get the IT trend down. 
 
I like trading both sides. Trump rally was the easiest trend trading in a while. If we get the IT down, it could be fun playing the fast moves on the downside. 
 
But alas right at the inflection point the "C" indicator got fired. So we know what's coming next tongue.png


Hi NAV

What do u think about the financials here? The one main reason I voted for a "crash" was were the financials are. Meaning they are at a point where they could go n fast. One indicator I use on the Financial Index is at a point where the market has dropped another 10%.

Maybe that's not the true definition of a "crash" being only 10% but that what it has done, majority of the time in the past.

Thks

Keep up the great work

#17 NAV

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 10:36 PM

 

Over the last 15 years i have been on this board, i have seen at least 10 crash calls every year. Out of that, 2 of them actually materialized.There was one in 2008 which was pretty much a no brainer and everyone called it right. The other one was the flash crash in 2010.
 
2/150 =  1.3% success rate. C'mon guys !
 
I am open to crash calls once the intermediate term turns down. Before that, it just emotionally weak guys making noise on the internet. My intermediate system is close to turning down but not quite. If we trade below SPX 2330 for a week or so here, we could get the IT trend down. 
 
I like trading both sides. Trump rally was the easiest trend trading in a while. If we get the IT down, it could be fun playing the fast moves on the downside. 
 
But alas right at the inflection point the "C" indicator got fired. So we know what's coming next tongue.png


Hi NAV

What do u think about the financials here? The one main reason I voted for a "crash" was were the financials are. Meaning they are at a point where they could go n fast. One indicator I use on the Financial Index is at a point where the market has dropped another 10%.

Maybe that's not the true definition of a "crash" being only 10% but that what it has done, majority of the time in the past.

Thks

Keep up the great work

 

 

The way i see it, financial sectror is near the Jan 19 support. I will have to give the benefit of doubt to S&P taking support here and rallying to new all time highs. 

 

Like i said if we spend more time below the S&P 2330 region, bulls are in trouble for the intermediate term. I will update next week if things change.

 

My IT indicators change 2-4  times in a year. When they do they turn, it's usually a multi-month move of 10-20% at least. 


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#18 kinga200

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Posted 14 April 2017 - 11:25 PM

 

Over the last 15 years i have been on this board, i have seen at least 10 crash calls every year. Out of that, 2 of them actually materialized.There was one in 2008 which was pretty much a no brainer and everyone called it right. The other one was the flash crash in 2010.
 
2/150 =  1.3% success rate. C'mon guys !
 
I am open to crash calls once the intermediate term turns down. Before that, it just emotionally weak guys making noise on the internet. My intermediate system is close to turning down but not quite. If we trade below SPX 2330 for a week or so here, we could get the IT trend down. 
 
I like trading both sides. Trump rally was the easiest trend trading in a while. If we get the IT down, it could be fun playing the fast moves on the downside. 
 
But alas right at the inflection point the "C" indicator got fired. So we know what's coming next tongue.png

Hi NAV

What do u think about the financials here? The one main reason I voted for a "crash" was were the financials are. Meaning they are at a point where they could go n fast. One indicator I use on the Financial Index is at a point where the market has dropped another 10%.

Maybe that's not the true definition of a "crash" being only 10% but that what it has done, majority of the time in the past.

Thks

Keep up the great work
 
 
The way i see it, financial sectror is near the Jan 19 support. I will have to give the benefit of doubt to S&P taking support here and rallying to new all time highs. 
 
Like i said if we spend more time below the S&P 2330 region, bulls are in trouble for the intermediate term. I will update next week if things change.
 
My IT indicators change 2-4  times in a year. When they do they turn, it's usually a multi-month move of 10-20% at least. 

Thks NAV Fair enough, yes timeframe matters n what makes us put our opinions on this board. My VST is only for next day n I use options for this.

Thks for ur input.

#19 pdx5

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Posted 15 April 2017 - 06:38 PM

Hehe...my FF about the NoKo missile launch failing was right again.

 

Along with my FF last November 9th, that Trump rally has legs through March.


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#20 tommyt

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 12:33 PM

Technically things looks crappy and worsening...but crashes (seldom) normally take place from lower chart levels after the market has worked through a few layers of support. You get fragile underpinnings and  a crew of overhead supply who become motivated sellers when it happens. Just my .02  Rocketman window June/July