2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

The system still remains in cash waiting for Godot. The next turn or trend acceleration risk window is tough to nail down with risk cycle turns scattered over the next several days. The wide center of this risk cloud appears to be the front half of next week.

The really high risk window I noted in my last post has past without a serious event, but the shear number of crazy people loudly rattling sabers has probably awakened at least one dozing black swan. We will be truly lucky to make it past the next high risk window which closes just before mid-May without a serious swoon.

Regards,
Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 13 April 2017 - 03:02 PM.

[Douglas]

Friday's action created a system buy signal for Monday 17 April. If the DJIA is above 20453 at 3 pm, the system will buy RYDHX at the close on Monday. If below Friday's close at 20453, it will sit on its hands another day. Since Monday is slap bang in the middle of a risk cloud, a turn or acceleration of the current down trend is likely. A serious amount of hedging appears to have been put on Friday to cover risk over the long weekend the unwind of which could cause a bounce, unless of course, the hedgers were right to be afraid.

All the saber rattling the last several days has reminded me of a bumper stick from the Vietnam days which read "War is good for business, invest your son".

Regards,
Douglas

[Douglas]

"Friday's action" first words in the note above should have read "Thursday's action. Wrote the note too early in the morning while still half asleep same as this one.

Regards,
DouglasZZZZZ