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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 06:25 PM

Had 44 sells on my nifty-fifty stock list Thursday.  Forty plus sells usually marks, if not the bottom of a swing, the beginning of the bottom (see my simple chart below). Now couple that with the NYMO turning the NYSI up again, and the VIX plunging below the magic 15 level (again, after a fifth climactic day up in a row), and the indexes turning up from oversold, and today's bounce was (short of nuclear war over weekend) almost inevitable.

 

Now the question is can the bounce continue? Probably, and if the next dip (tomorrow, or whenever) can't take out what is staring us in the face, I SPY a rally to the top of the SPY range or higher by sell-in-May-and-stay-away time. 

 

And if the next downturn does trip this setup (tomorrow, or whenever), well...that will be rather bearish.

 

Good luck and good trading.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#2 tradesurfer

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Posted 17 April 2017 - 08:11 PM

Well today's mega rally certainly got everyone bulled up.    But is it a trap?  Seems like it would be odd to have huge upside follow through right on Uncle Sam day tomorrow.


Edited by tradesurfer, 17 April 2017 - 08:11 PM.


#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 07:57 AM

Entire 2 day sequence was operator manipulated... close on extreme low Thursday, close on extreme high on Monday...

 

Designed to get them bulled up.

 

One more railroad track back down now, and then we could see another one back up ....


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#4 diogenes227

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Posted 18 April 2017 - 05:27 PM

Updated the chart above to show the high below the high on the NYMO.  That is not good for the bull case, especially if it follows through to the downside tomorrow and turns the NYSI bearish.  If it doesn't drop and instead puts in a low above a low on the pattern above the zero line, I will once again SPY a slow bear burn into May. 

 

At the moment, tomorrow looks like it might be significant one way or the other, but then when hasn't most days in the past couple of months appeared to be that way?

 

Good luck and good trading.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#5 diogenes227

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 01:27 AM

A week ago (last Thursday) when I had 44 of my nifty-50 stock list on sells and 29 of those oversold, I spied a rally to come in the market (see the title of this thread) and then it chopped intraday with a couple of down days.  But today took care of that.  I now have 37 of the nifty-50 stock list on buys and 17 of those overbought.  Looks like the rally is just getting started on the indexes since there is now a true low above a low on the NYMO and the NYSI has turned up again.  .

 

So I guess stocks can move up forever...but tightening stops on some of those over bought might be, as they say, prudent..

 

Good luck and good trading.

 

 

 

 

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.