12 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

Just ran an update using Hurst's spectral analysis tools on both the Dow and SPX.  The resulting cyclic model supports the idea of a significant (generational) high this summer in those stock indices. Robert Prechter and EWI are also calling for a generational high with the next wave up.  The traditional Hurst nominal model becomes bearish in May and doesn't project what might be considered a generational high. 

 

A monthly chart analysis using the DeMark Indicators™ is not yet definitive.  The DTI and RUT have topping signals in place.  SPX, Dow, and NDX signals could hit by late summer. 

 

A DeMark Indicators™  analysis of the weekly charts supports the view of serial tops in the indices, extending from March into the summer.

Edited by Geomean, 20 April 2017 - 05:33 PM.

[arbman]

I would focus on the volatility in any given 10 year interval, rather than 10 year repeating patterns. If you already had a severe crash within 10 years, what are the odds of that happening again? Then look to find out whether the statistical significance favors 7 or 8 or 10 years or more. You won't find any 4 year intervals with less than 14% average volatility and 7-8 intervals without 25% average volatility, probably 15-16 year intervals without 30% or more volatility. This is more important than just a repeating pattern. These markets are statistically due for a correction, at least. Most likely something over 14% within 12 months. This is more valuable than just cycles. I would rather focus on the breadth and find out whether the next high will be the last high and the next decline will be the one leading to that correction (than relying on a set pattern). Patterns do exist, but expecting an exact repetition by numerology is not statistically significant.

Edited by arbman, 22 April 2017 - 09:43 AM.

[dowdeva]

Arbman,

 

Thanks for keeping me on spot empirically. My thinking is spacial and intuitive, and your post was very much appreciated.

 

However, the term 'numerology' infers a derogatory connotation to the concept of repeating harmonics in years of same number. Sort of like the term 'conspiracy theory'. Whatever theory was posited is immediately trivialized by the term.

 

I actually don't think that he patterns are exact. However, I do think, as I said, there is some kind of harmonic.

 

I once read an essay on Levi-Strauss's use of the Oedipus myth in 'Structural Analysis of Myth.'  Oedipus's name meant Hurt Foot. His father's name meant Left Sided. His grandfather's name meant Lame. There were deep issues in the family line that were being worked out through through the generations, but there would be descrete shifts in how they were manifested in each family member.

 

The person who wrote the essay (I forget his name) had diagrammed the shifts of the myth analysed by Levi-Strauss using logical argument and then diagrammed it.

 

As the shifts evolved, an elliptical line remarkably like the DNA strand evolved.

 

That's how I think of these years that are the same in number. They are harmonics, but they shift as we work out whatever issue is predominant in the higher order cycle. They end up spiraling. Rather like the Fibonnacci series, which is the math of the universe encoded into us on a molecular level, and spirals out through time.

 

Just a thought. This reply is late and not sure whether you'll even see it.

Edited by dowdeva, 27 April 2017 - 12:48 PM.