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Vix SPIKE Coming?

French Elections

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#1 SemiBizz

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 09:13 AM

Attached chart shows the timeframes for the last two major spikes in VIX.

 

Brexit

 

Trump Election.

 

Now we're about to get another political "event" in France... will we see another big VIX spike, a quick selloff and a new bottom in the market... AGAIN?

 

 


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#2 Darris

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 09:58 AM

The symbol $VXST at stockcharts seems to be leading the way recently, and more so today. 



#3 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 02:11 PM

Given the time frame, we might have already seen the Spike in VIX...     It is difficult to tell.... I would expect the Spike to be above 20 for $VIX before we can confirm a bottom...



#4 Iblayz

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 03:28 PM

Unless the market makes an incredible dump in the last 15 minutes, my take is today is bearish. In my opinion, the lows for this move are NOT in. So I will just stick my neck out there with some dates. I think that the market will be down until April 21st with the usual head-turning games in the interim. If the market makes a low a day or two before that and holds it on the 21st OR makes a low on the 21st and holds it........I think it makes a serious bounce into May 15th. If the low of the 21st (or the day or two before) does not hold (after the 21st), then May 15th could be a seriously lower low. All in my opinion, of course.

 

 

I said the above on April 6th. Since there is other evidence at work that is not mentioned in the above post, it is now my opinion that the lows ARE NOT in. It is also my opinion that the market will be down into May 15th.......once again with the usual shenanigans in between.



#5 gm_general

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 05:38 PM

Rarely have I seen clean trend lines on the VIX, it is usually more, well, volatile than that. But here we have a resistance line and it hit that line last just BEFORE the election, and then things started to turn in the other direction. So we are getting close to that declining line - that would be the place to watch - IF it should break to the upside, it should get very bumpy, IMO.


Edited by gm_general, 21 April 2017 - 05:39 PM.


#6 mss

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 05:47 PM

F W I W - maybe we have a turn. There have been double bottoms before a turn back up. I divide VIX { 1:vix} so that it moves in the same direction as price.

 

 

I have posted this type of charts on VIX and price ratio a number of times on this site. They can still be found. 

 

Have a great weekend folks. It was nice to visit again.

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#7 MDurkin

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 08:10 PM

F W I W - maybe we have a turn. There have been double bottoms before a turn back up. I divide VIX { 1:vix} so that it moves in the same direction as price.

 

 

I have posted this type of charts on VIX and price ratio a number of times on this site. They can still be found. 

 

Have a great weekend folks. It was nice to visit again.

mss

Nice chart!



#8 arbman

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Posted 22 April 2017 - 01:13 AM

Breadth has been leading up during the decline, I doubt you will see a break down yet.

#9 MDurkin

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Posted 22 April 2017 - 05:27 AM

Breadth has been leading up during the decline, I doubt you will see a break down yet.

Yep chart 06

 

 

http://stockcharts.c...c/1172710/tenpp



#10 lawdog

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Posted 22 April 2017 - 08:06 AM

i still have in my bookmarks mss's ROC moving average charts started in a post in Feb, 2009. they have helped many times and can keep one from making really bad mistakes.