y-u-u-u-g-e vix call volume, and these guys aren't the best at this, so i see that as an argument against a volatility spike, and if it happens would probably be a great fade as happened with brexit. going long vix on the french vote suggests the vix guys are fighting the last war. i doubt the result has the effect brexit had. with that said, the bounce this week may be counter-trend and it is certainly possible we haven't seen the bottom of this swing move down, in which event vix would definitely spike higher.
21 replies to this topic
#12
mss
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I'M WATCHING
Posted 22 April 2017 - 09:44 AM
i still have in my bookmarks mss's ROC moving average charts started in a post in Feb, 2009. they have helped many times and can keep one from making really bad mistakes.
Here is a updated version. I have not posted the updated list anywhere. It gives a little more info as to what might happen.
Enjoy,
mss 
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#13
pedro
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Posted 22 April 2017 - 11:03 AM
I'm on board with a resumption of the upside moves for the VOL products here.
Already have signals as of Friday's close.
Probably see more evidence Sunday night.
#14
SemiBizz
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Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 22 April 2017 - 11:04 AM
Well, by the evidence - for Brexit, it took a day or so for the BUY SIGNAL in the equity market...
For Trump - It happened in the futures... and extended into to the opening before the BUY SIGNAL kicked in..
This event is happening in Europe - we could see a big dump and a panic buy before the markets even open on Monday...
These computers are programmed to BUY AT MARKET - ALL VIX SPIKES... pretty obvious.
Edited by SemiBizz, 22 April 2017 - 11:05 AM.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#15
alexnewbee
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Posted 22 April 2017 - 01:37 PM
Well, by the evidence - for Brexit, it took a day or so for the BUY SIGNAL in the equity market...
For Trump - It happened in the futures... and extended into to the opening before the BUY SIGNAL kicked in..
This event is happening in Europe - we could see a big dump and a panic buy before the markets even open on Monday...
These computers are programmed to BUY AT MARKET - ALL VIX SPIKES... pretty obvious.
Ha, people are conditioned. So it will be different this time
"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein
#16
AChartist
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Tim
Posted 22 April 2017 - 04:00 PM
from ZH today
Central Banks Give "All Clear" To BTFD If French Election Upsets Market
"The central bank is ready for any shocks that should materialize [after the French election]... Intervening very quickly is really very easy
now given the instruments we have... But as we have seen in similar cases, no need has really been observed. And the reason is that all market
participants know that these instruments are there to be used."
"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know
some of them, and they don't work" M.Jordan
#17
Charvo
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Posted 22 April 2017 - 06:27 PM
It's just round 1. Unless it's Le Pen and Melanchon, I think the market is going to bounce. VIX: VXV ratio spiked a few days ago to levels seen at good bottoms, and it hasn't receded yet. VIX contango is now at 0 or even in backwardation. With that being said, I've got charts saying the S&P 500 and Dow are probably not making new highs, but the QQQs might. I'm long TLT a bit even though I think the market bounce will go extend more. I'm looking to get longer TLT bigtime.
#18
MaryAM
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#19
dowdeva
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Posted 23 April 2017 - 01:26 PM
Changed my mind
Edited by dowdeva, 23 April 2017 - 01:32 PM.
#20
tommyt
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Posted 23 April 2017 - 04:08 PM
The first phase of the French election was about as expected...the two will have a final vote on May 7. Since LePen didnt get an overwhelming win, probably not much reaction tonight/tomorrow...at least not down. Vix may/may not have had its move for this phase...I favor its upside is limited for a bit and will come down and reload.
Edited by tommyt, 23 April 2017 - 04:09 PM.
