216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

all in capitulation

[lawdog]

i mean the bulls, not me. still have lots of dry powder to deploy

[lawdog]

y-u-u-u-g-e option volume today. Wonder why Naz100 is doing so badly. Could it be that the market has run out of gas? Stay tuned. If I was really sure I would buy more short etf's, but I have enough to make some dough if I am right. But again, I see capitulation and I see an absolutely terrible risk/reward situation right now.

 

I don't see anyone else on the board saying anything like this. Is that capitulation? Maybe. Remember, the hard trade is the right trade when the whole world is against you.

[alexnewbee]

Me

[lawdog]

Good for you Alex. Thanks for being another voice in the wilderness. As I wrote above, the hard trade is usually the correct trade. 

 

Thanks to those who read my posts. Markets keep going up until they stop going up. Of course, even if you stop reading, I enjoy writing. It's a form of discipline that helps me focus on what I am doing and why.

 

Quite a day so far. NAZ100 and NAZ are amazing. 

 

Maybe baby gets new shoes.

 

I think Blu called this one! Thanks Blu. I expressed my doubts about you, although I obviously was in the same camp. It's just that, well, you know.

 

Now it gets difficult. How far does this thing go and how quickly does it bounce and how much does it bounce? Is this an important top? Could be. As I have been writing the last 48 hours, I see signs of capitulation. Very difficult to call at this point. I'm sure there will be some out there pontificating about it. Where were they today at 2:00 pm?

 

Wow, it just seems to keep going lower. Now it's coming back a bit. What does this mean for Monday? Maybe we make Blu's levels, I think he said somewhere around 2390 on the SPX, but I would be surprised if we go that low, but that would only be 35 more spx points down, so it could happen. Markets that move this fast usually leave you disappointed one way or the other, either how much you lost or how much you could have made if nimble. Think I will just leave it alone and check back near closing. Got some one arm bandits to take on! 

[alexnewbee]

Yes, that is the big question, what is next. But you are really good. You run this bull long and shorted quite correctly. Very good.

[lawdog]

Some of the posts today are absolutely hilarious. I am denigrated for being short and shorting more this morning, and then when it plunges, they start pontificating about it as though it was all very predictable. I guess that's how some people cope. If some were as good as they present themselves to be, they would own the world in about 2 years.

 

Decent day for me, but disappointed that the spx came back as much as it did, but that's what bear markets do, they keep coming back at lower levels, sucking in more money as they work lower. Still, can't feel too bad about being short via the QID and I added to my short spx at 2442.  

 

So do we have ourselves a bear market? Maybe, but that doesn't mean it goes straight down. All we try to do is catch likely swings in any direction. The problem to watch out for with bear markets is that they usually need to get sold off to greater extremes to set up buys, and never get back to the oversold levels of the bull, so you are left thinking the advance has further to go because it is not overbought, but then it goes down again and you're caught in the steps downward. 

 

Most people think they can pick the top here by looking for a rounding top that gives them plenty of time to see the top. Well, maybe that works some times but it doesn't have to be that way. As they say, watch that first step, it's a Duesy. Perhaps that first step was today. 

 

The bulls probably would have been better off if the market had closed weak. The strength is just what a bear market needs to work its way down.