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My trading plan right now


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#151 lawdog

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 08:49 AM

bot some more silver and a small long vix position, combined are less than 10%, so 30% 2x spx, 5% silver and 2.5% vix.



#152 lawdog

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 08:57 AM

spx down now to 20% from 30.



#153 lawdog

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 10:52 AM

bot back up to 40% long; don't see how this can end yet. hesitancy is just the fear of spx 2400; probably break thru one of these days. probably sell my vix as well soon.



#154 lawdog

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:00 AM

paid up .60 a share to get back my naz100 position. up to 45% long. still have vix as a hedge plus silver etf



#155 lawdog

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:55 AM

back up to 55%



#156 lawdog

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 01:50 AM

ok, decent strength today; overnight, looks like gap open. if we get a spx gain of 30+ points, which appears very possible, i will take it with half my long position by end of day, then see how things develop after that. i think we are close, in days, to at least an intermediate top, but we need that capitulation day, which could be today, thursday. 



#157 lawdog

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 09:52 AM

gap wasn't large, gain is steady, so likely to continue to hold all longs, at least for another hour. i do see some significant indications of increased risk. silver did nicely yesterday, so seems to be acting correctly. still have a small vix long, which cost me some yesterday but is pretty much unchanged today. naz continues its persistent run. looks easy in hindsight, but this naz run is terminal. isee equity call/put stays below 100, which is so amazing and indicative of fear but i don't give it as much weight as i have at other times.

 

one of these days there will be a fundamental reason that gives the all-clear, which will allow the top to be called. continue being vigilant. non-confirmations will show up all over the place. they might be happening right now. break thru spx 2400 might be an event which sets up a reversal, assuming this brings in the johnnie-come-latelies, which i am looking for, which could happen even today. if we get 25+ spx points. i will sell down from current near 60% down to 40%

 

if you are interested, i will post here. but i am likely to be early. i have traded a lot this week; fortunately none of it hurt me, only helping my broker, but it's important to play defense every now and then.



#158 lawdog

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 10:53 AM

added 10% on 4 pt spx pullback; so now 70%. risky move, but . . .



#159 lawdog

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 11:09 AM

option players getting beared up on small pullback from earlier highs. i'll take the other side of that trade. this is how rallies persist.



#160 Rich C

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 12:14 PM

I was in for a week, and I'll be busy with life for a few days.  Decided to take my profits and sold all the SPY which was my biggest position.  I have high ball sell orders on MSFT and a few other stocks, but it is a lot less money than I had in SPY.  We had a nice little run up, but market is looking lethargic and I will be away for days, so I cut back.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months.