216 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

opening put/call print on cboe is .39, lowest i have seen in recent memory. I wouldn't take it to mean too much yet; these have a way of evening out over the day, but I must say, if I were a bull, this reading would give me pause. if this holds up for the first few hours, it suggests to me that my bearish scenario has a chance of working out. still am totally depressed over silver.

 

vxx is off 1%; maybe add a little to my long vxx position. I don't see it as helpful to the bullish case that the djia is up and naz and spx are down, but that might just be an outdated indicator. they used to say it was bad when the generals march alone, i.e. the dow 30, but maybe it's changed.

[lawdog]

low put/calls have held up. when this perennial loser bunch becomes unabashedly bullish for several days, and when they can't be shaken, watch out for a drop. i especially dislike the lack of momentum and broad participation on this last move up from mid-april.

 

i guess comey just called trump a liar. not watching it, just saw a post. hope trump can keep his finger off the twitter send button. i wonder who comey's ghost writer is going to be? he needs to be working on his book now and get it out before his 15 mins of fame run out.

[lawdog]

pullback in vxx probably suggesting nothing of earth-shattering consequence will come out in comey's testimony today, so the market will soon be free of this sideshow and get on with its intended move, whatever that may be.

[lawdog]

cboe equities continue to show calls 2 to 1 over puts in volume. this group believes that when comey is thru testifying, it is clear sailing for trump and the mkt resumes its inexorable march skyward.

[lawdog]

okay, so nothing new from Comey, Trump is in no worse condition than he was before today, so the cloud that was hanging over the market anticipating bombshells from Comey should be lifted and away we go to the upside, just like all those call buyers have been thinking the last few days. So why not? And why is the naz100 lagging? Because Comey's nothing new testimony is already discounted by the market, baked into the cake as they say. So now the market can rise and fall on its own merit, at least for a while, without concern for an immediate political event getting in the way. 

[lawdog]

heavy call buying in the early hours has now backed off a lot, with a more normal balance. The early readings may be skewed for some reason, like active buying in a new offering, or in a stock that is in play. So the danger of the excessive early call buying is probably not as worrisome as it first appeared. With that said, with slightly more than an hour to close, the spx is near its lows of the day. Failure here does not bode well for the next day or two; possibly a strong down day tomorrow and then fear selling Monday morning, with a low put in on Monday a.m. I have a feeling that a few days of selling should be enough to put this market back in going higher mode. A nice 2% drop would be very gratifying.

 

My beloved silver is hanging in there with a less than 1% loss on the day. Still don't know why it had a sudden .20 drop. 

 

New lows for the spx. come on, keep falling. baby needs new shoes.

[lawdog]

It's really hard making money as a bear these days. Every once in a while, about once every 6-8 weeks, you get one odd day that sees a big decline, and that's it. What are the odds of being clever enough to have any significant short position on that one day that happens once every 2 months? Not too good. I made some money in shorts a few months ago on the NoKo scare and thought it would keep going after the week Friday close, but that was it on that friday and from there it was up. I got out on the next Monday and made some money, but I gave back a lot of the gains just on that Monday strength. It's no fun being a bear right now, but it's the right place to be at present. Will I make money? Odds are against it, actually. "If you play the odds."

[lawdog]

this mkt is so bulled-up right now. i am 40% short and have no intention of being scared out of this position. obviously, certain things happen which could force me out, but even if that were to happen, i would likely only reduce my position and be poised to reinstate it. the risk-reward here is terrible. my silver is getting whacked again.

[lawdog]

increased short position to 55% at spx 2442

[lawdog]

only 4 ff poll posts today, but i am the only bear in the poll