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My trading plan right now


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#21 lawdog

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 03:36 PM

Here is my take on those who are constantly looking for and seeing the end of an advance. Such a person is in a state of realizing the parade has passed him by, and the only way to cope is to predict/hope that all the lions and tigers and bears escape and devour those who were foolish enough to participate in the parade. Expected retort: "so who are you lawdog, Sigmund Freud?" and all I can say is, look deep down at your positions and responses to new highs and tell me this is not you, at least sometimes. and after the many tops you have called, you will finally capitulate to the bull, and the top is in.

 

If you don't like hearing this stuff, then maybe you don't want to read my posts. And for those who tune in, waiting for me to make a y-u-u-u-g-e mistake, yes, one of these days I will get hit bigtime, and you can enjoy my comeuppance. Maybe it will be this week! 



#22 SemiBizz

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 05:06 PM

Yeah well, the old 3 humps and a dump....

 

George Lindsay...

 

One of the most, if not the most complicated chart formation patterns of all time...

 

But you have to begin with the fact that Lindsay said Specifically that this would only apply to the DJIA....

 

good enough for me.


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#23 lawdog

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 06:26 PM

Calling that formation on the NAZ a three peaks and a domed house is completely premature. The dome of the domed house probably takes at least two months to form, something many of us might call a rolling top. You can't call a domed house when an index is at all time highs. It's wishful thinking by people who missed the parade and are now hoping for doom upon those who are still in. How can a person see something that isn't there? We are all subjective in what we do, by definition, but we should try as hard as possible to find some objectivity in our analysis. To see something that is not there is a betrayal of analysis and is a betrayal of oneself.

 

There is a tendency to find one pet indicator that is our end all and be all, and when we see it, or worse, when we think we see it, we become deaf, dumb and blind to everything else. I did this in mid-February when the spx was in the 2330 range, one indicator that has been helpful was giving a sell, so instead of paying attention to the momentum, the expiration week, and everything else, I just stepped up and decided enough was enough, shorted the market, and proceeded to lose some valuable upside. 

 

We call it technical analysis for a reason: it is supposed to be objective analysis. You test it against what has gone before and hope that you can find something in the past that is similar, that had consistent results, and then maybe you get a repeat. But it requires analysis, not wishful thinking and not imposing our bias upon what we see.

 

On a little different subject, since the market pretty much either goes up or down (or sideways for a while, but eventually, up or down) we have a 50/50 shot (less the house vigorish), which is pretty good odds. When we get it right, we often attribute it to our skill in reading our tea leaves. But, speaking for myself, I'm sure that often I get it right just because I have a 50/50 shot and sometimes, it's not because of my good analysis, it's just that I'm lucky, or that I am rolling along with a market that doesn't do anything wrong, so I let it carry me. I have mentioned how I wish I had more in the NAZ, but the fact I am in it doesn't make me smart (or stupid because I don't have more), I'm just letting it carry me along at this point. I never expected the NAZ to rally like it has been doing.  Many times my success in the market has been pure serendipity, not genius, and sooner or later, normally sooner, the market will hand me my hat.( And it could be tomorrow. Today was very disappointing in the spx, losing half the gain. All I have to hang my hat on here, continuing the analogy I guess, is that the momentum is still okay, the short and mid-term indicators are not overbought, we were up today, NAZ up big, so we are merely dealing with the supply of stock that has come in at the round numbers of 2400 and 21,000 and once those sellers are cleared out, we can rally strongly in the spx and djia as well.) Some of our beliefs about the market are nothing more than superstition: we saw some correlation once, and then came to belief that correlation was causation. But remember, correlation is NOT causation. Just because you did a rain dance twice and it rained does not mean your dance caused it to rain; you just got lucky that the rains came when you were hoping for them. 



#24 diogenes227

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 06:53 PM

Here is my take on those who are constantly looking for and seeing the end of an advance. Such a person is in a state of realizing the parade has passed him by, and the only way to cope is to predict/hope that all the lions and tigers and bears escape and devour those who were foolish enough to participate in the parade. Expected retort: "so who are you lawdog, Sigmund Freud?" and all I can say is, look deep down at your positions and responses to new highs and tell me this is not you, at least sometimes. and after the many tops you have called, you will finally capitulate to the bull, and the top is in.

 

If you don't like hearing this stuff, then maybe you don't want to read my posts. And for those who tune in, waiting for me to make a y-u-u-u-g-e mistake, yes, one of these days I will get hit bigtime, and you can enjoy my comeuppance. Maybe it will be this week! 

 

Well said.  yes.gif


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#25 NAV

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 10:36 PM

3 Peaks and a doomed trading career pattern - yeah always works ! 


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“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#26 alexnewbee

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 10:46 PM

Well, calling the tops is most difficult task, especially in such a run. It is just vanity. And as JL said - better give up chasing last eights. And of course it could turn to be pure BS. Like so far Fibonacci extensions turned to be busted.
But, as already said here is probably vanity involved. And I expect some kind of a (the) top this week. IMHO.
"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#27 alexnewbee

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Posted 01 May 2017 - 10:50 PM

http://www.zerohedge...70501_macro.jpg

Some support from city bank ;)
"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#28 lawdog

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Posted 02 May 2017 - 12:03 AM

Brad Gudgeon is back with a post at safehaven.com, looking for a quick drop to 2345 by Thursday or Friday, then new spx highs by mid-May. at least he has pared back the size of the moves, but even at that, I don't think this market has the volatility to drop 40 spx points in 2-3 days. i am still very concerned about the low vix. I mentioned in a prior post about a good article on the subject, which da cheif also cited, suggesting it should not be a problem. still, I feel it is flashing danger and this does temper my bullishness.

 

after reviewing it all, i am not giving this market the benefit of any doubt. if it starts falling, I am out. will probably initiate long vix positions. this is a quick turn from my recent posts, but, I have to call it as i see it. so Brad might have it right here. 



#29 lawdog

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Posted 02 May 2017 - 05:39 AM

going to put a sell stop on my naz100 position at Monday's closing print, and move it up, keeping it 5 pts away from each advance of another 5 pts. will do similarly with spx positions, only perhaps use a 3 pt sell stop. i have really lost my belief in this mkt for now. 4 days of going nowhere does not inspire confidence, and who knows, we might be looking back on the past few days' blowoff in the naz as an important turning point. an old mkt adage goes something like, "when the Dow marches alone, beware." perhaps it applies now with the naz marching alone.

 

sometimes I get these things pretty close to the extremes, and sometimes I am early by a week or so, hence the use of sell stops. the sell stop is hardly a cure all, but it sometimes keeps me in the game. Even if I don't get stopped out, I will most likely cut back by Tuesday's close in fear of a gap opening against me.



#30 lawdog

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Posted 02 May 2017 - 08:37 AM

sold down to 45%; still have my 5% naz100.