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My trading plan right now


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#41 lawdog

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Posted 02 May 2017 - 04:42 PM

No waffling, long FAZ - short ETF financials...

 

Toe in water, looking to add SOXS after AAPL love fest.

 

Looking at adding VIX OTM calls.

 

That's some pretty heavy duty short etf's there. I guess the revenue miss doesn't help in adding positions, but my guess is that you already had some of these, so I suspect that's a quick win for you right there. I don't think I have the stomach for those, nor the expertise. The most volatility I handle is the vxx, but my vxx positions are never even 1% of my risk portfolio. If a person will just go long the vix here, you know that eventually we will get an event that will send the vix up to 15 to 20 easily. Just don't use leverage in the account you trade the vix in. You could have a 30% drawdown, but a vix spike some time in the next year or two is inevitable. I wonder how long the selloff in AAPL and the NAZ will hold. 



#42 alexnewbee

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 01:52 AM

 
I wonder how long the selloff in AAPL and the NAZ will hold. 

Two years if Semi's source has any merit. :)

Edited by alexnewbee, 03 May 2017 - 01:53 AM.

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#43 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 08:31 AM

There's a big problem out there... very big.  Just remember something, we made new highs in the market in the fall of 2007, but it was the END OF THE WORLD in 2008.  Few who experienced 2008, still remember the fall of 2007...  and how fast we went from high to low...

 

We had a big problem in 2006-2007 and it was "covered over" for a long time, the bankers tried everything they could to try to create inflation, so as to minimalize the damage from the corrupt regime they had been running...  they even resorted to buying crude contracts and running the price to $145 to try to create inflation, which they desperately needed...  They found out that "cost pull" doesn't get the job done, it squashes the economy.  It didn't take long after their "experiment" failed in June of 2008, for the end of the World to be announced by Hank Paulsen.

 

Nothing has changed, except the problem is bigger and more complicated, and we're going to deal with it.


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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#44 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 08:35 AM

We just consolidated the Fibonacci resistance now at 6073...

 

as expected.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#45 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 08:38 AM

There's really no good support under here until 6040...

 

And there's SPX 2385 again.


Edited by SemiBizz, 03 May 2017 - 08:38 AM.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#46 alexnewbee

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 08:44 AM

There is always a big problem out there. It did not disappear since 1929 or may be even 1907. Problems of 1929 were just "grown out", but they did not disappear. 

Are we in sept 1987 or still in 1986? Then only question is timing.


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#47 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 09:16 AM

VST intraday support now at 6058 pivot.

 

Nothing but hot air gap now until 6047.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#48 Rich C

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 09:31 AM

I sold out about a week ago, and the S&P has just sat marking time.  Earnings have been good generally, and if the market can't rally on good earnings, that bothers me short term.  If 2390 is a double top, and it looks like it is right now, then I'd expect a correction.  Auto sales are weakening, but home sales are strong.  I will buy on weakness, provided we don't go below 2320 in which case the correction could be more serious than normal.  We haven't had a 10% correction in 14 months.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#49 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 09:50 AM

As long as the SPX holds 2377 today, should be fine, but under that and it can get ugly very fast.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#50 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 May 2017 - 09:53 AM

DJUSEN - Dow Jones US Energy Index... made a new 2017 LOW and CLOSING LOW yesterday.  Just  tested the low again and missed by 3 cts

 

and... BROKEN


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics