Jump to content



Photo

Intermediate sell


  • Please log in to reply
21 replies to this topic

#1 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 06:30 PM

Looking for a correction to around the 2200 area. Weekly SPX MACD is not in a spot for continued advance.

Also, the pattern in the below chart puts us in the same setup as end of April 2012 for a 10% correction.

Equity p/c 100ma has consolidated while at the same time Index p/c 20ma is turning back up.

 

 



#2 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 07:34 PM

On a fundamental basis, the Trump tax plan is over, nothing better to announce and Fed is

looking to hike. I think we will be looking at June lows for a summer rally.



#3 da_cheif

da_cheif

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,960 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 08:11 PM

sentiment and other technicals dont support a sell signal.........



#4 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 08:52 PM

I have seen you do this for years. It's like the soup of the day, you cook up some signals based on different technical ingredients that suits that day. I doubt you have any consistent system with which you appoach the markets. 

 

You remember you had posted those nice looking Renko charts. What happened to them ? I am sure they are still on a buy. But you sure have jumped the ship before it gave a sell. Were you able to follow that system ?


Edited by NAV, 30 April 2017 - 08:54 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#5 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 09:49 PM

Well the Equity p/c signaled a top in 2015 and I was watching for it then. I don't use that chart much,

only at certain points because there aren't many signals. As for Renko, it's tough trading it with options

unless you buy a month of time and then the gains are muted if not lost. This latest move up made me want to 

load up on long term calls, so sentiment wise I think selling is probably the right trade. I still try to front 

run the daily sell because it's a bull market and the sell can quickly be bought back up, causing a big

drawdown if I waited for the turn. 

 

Basically I use momentum indicators, internals and intermarket divergences, a lot of times the trade

starts out good but then the market turns way before I expected.



#6 lawdog

lawdog

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,080 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 09:59 PM

i don't have a system either. market action changes over time and I analyze the condition of indicators in the context of the current market. for me, it is weight of the evidence in making a call on the probable market direction.

 

with that said, I don't see a lot of similarity with april 2012 right now. the decline that began about May 1, 2012 came off a near retest of a very overbought mid-april peak. the current market seems to be an impulse advance off an oversold market. to be similar, this current mkt needs to get a bit more overbought, then come off a few percent, then rally back near to, but short of, the highs made two weeks previously. I like to look for analogous situations to help me with my decisions. I analyzed april 2012 and don't see it as a good analogy, for the reasons, and others, as stated.



#7 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 10:04 PM

I shorted IWM mostly, Friday morning, so far so good and Friday printed a daily Renko sell, it may not hold

but the high volume bar preceeding it with now confirmation usually has more daily follow through.

 

 

 


Edited by CLK, 30 April 2017 - 10:05 PM.


#8 Charvo

Charvo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 380 posts

Posted 30 April 2017 - 11:08 PM

Rate hike odds is 63% for June.  I think it's better to be trading short anti-dollar stuff like GDX, FXI and EEM because those will see weakness going into June.  I'm focusing on FXI in particular.  I think the US stock markets are okay.  QQQ is the best though.



#9 pisces

pisces

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,179 posts

Posted 01 May 2017 - 06:00 AM

not much is talked about this weeks FOMC meeting.what are they expected to say on wed ?



#10 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 01 May 2017 - 07:10 AM

Expecting this gap up to be sold, globex first started down, so that is my reasoning.