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The Romp is Coming


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 10:12 AM

Look, I've been at this since 1982. At some point, you begin to recognize a market's "feel".

 

Right now, this thing feels like it's about ready to take off like a scalded dog. Yes, my "best trend" is on a Sell. Yes, Cumulative A/D Volume is on a Sell. Yes, my "Secret Hedge Fund" model is on a Sell. So what?

 

Those tools are great. They really are. They're also not guarantees. They get wrong fairly often, like all trading tools. Further, I cannot tell you how many times I've seen the market at or near new highs, consolidate just enough to back into a bunch of marginal sell signals right before it launches higher. From time to time, our great indicators betray us. They just do. That is why we're not all filthy rich by now.

 

I'm sure that this market will correct in a meaningful way, in time. The "feel" now is that that correction will come after burying all the oscillators in "Sell Territory" for a time. This might be several percent higher.

 

Maybe I'm wrong. It certainly won't be the first time. But at least be open to thinking back at other toppy looking markets that didn't top. Think about how they felt. Look at what the indicators did (stockcharts.com is a great tool for this). See for yourself if I'm making sense.

 

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#2 kinga200

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 10:30 AM

Look, I've been at this since 1982. At some point, you begin to recognize a market's "feel".

 

Right now, this thing feels like it's about ready to take off like a scalded dog. Yes, my "best trend" is on a Sell. Yes, Cumulative A/D Volume is on a Sell. Yes, my "Secret Hedge Fund" model is on a Sell. So what?

 

Those tools are great. They really are. They're also not guarantees. They get wrong fairly often, like all trading tools. Further, I cannot tell you how many times I've seen the market at or near new highs, consolidate just enough to back into a bunch of marginal sell signals right before it launches higher. From time to time, our great indicators betray us. They just do. That is why we're not all filthy rich by now.

 

I'm sure that this market will correct in a meaningful way, in time. The "feel" now is that that correction will come after burying all the oscillators in "Sell Territory" for a time. This might be several percent higher.

 

Maybe I'm wrong. It certainly won't be the first time. But at least be open to thinking back at other toppy looking markets that didn't top. Think about how they felt. Look at what the indicators did (stockcharts.com is a great tool for this). See for yourself if I'm making sense.

 

Mark

The financials are what is bothering me here.



#3 andr99

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 10:54 AM

Look, I've been at this since 1982. At some point, you begin to recognize a market's "feel".

 

Right now, this thing feels like it's about ready to take off like a scalded dog. Yes, my "best trend" is on a Sell. Yes, Cumulative A/D Volume is on a Sell. Yes, my "Secret Hedge Fund" model is on a Sell. So what?

 

Those tools are great. They really are. They're also not guarantees. They get wrong fairly often, like all trading tools. Further, I cannot tell you how many times I've seen the market at or near new highs, consolidate just enough to back into a bunch of marginal sell signals right before it launches higher. From time to time, our great indicators betray us. They just do. That is why we're not all filthy rich by now.

 

I'm sure that this market will correct in a meaningful way, in time. The "feel" now is that that correction will come after burying all the oscillators in "Sell Territory" for a time. This might be several percent higher.

 

Maybe I'm wrong. It certainly won't be the first time. But at least be open to thinking back at other toppy looking markets that didn't top. Think about how they felt. Look at what the indicators did (stockcharts.com is a great tool for this). See for yourself if I'm making sense.

 

Mark

you are perfectly right....both for the break up and the following IT correction. 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#4 arbman

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 11:33 AM

My guess is the market will pull back first and then rally with increasing volatility before a top. The pull back should close the gigantic gap, it should convince the crowd that the top is in. The last rally to the top can then go bonkers. I have nothing pointing out for an intermediate term advance (3-6 months), but the topping ahead of a decent correction can still take until August. The prices should go all over the place, it is usually how it tops. I am looking for a bottom in October.

 

Disclaimer: we are not market timing in any of our fund products, but purely managing risk, but I advice a few clients who invest more discretionary...



#5 libertas

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 11:36 AM

Well there is a saying - "never short a dull market" - and this market is certainly extremely dull.

 

I think making VIX widely tradable was a mistake by the CFTC. It has set up a lot of inexperienced people in a short volatility trade that, like writing naked puts or covered calls, is steadily profitable almost all the time except when it blows up. Which it will. Then the rush for the exits will create a panic which will be leveraged into the broad market.

 

There are so many potential event risks running around out there that I think one has to be very cautious.


Edited by libertas, 09 May 2017 - 11:43 AM.


#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 12:34 PM

I think the VIX is telling us we already had the romp, some other indicators are things like the # indices trading at all time highs...

 

I think we're closer to the rout than the romp.

 

VIX should be helpful here, unless it's going to 3 or something.


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#7 q4wer

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 01:07 PM

The very first few round of people who short the market will be defeated miserably and that money will be take off the market and then the real thing happens. So I guess that we will just go flat out into around end of June.  Minimum one month to go.



#8 SemiBizz

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 01:36 PM

The very first few round of people who short the market will be defeated miserably and that money will be take off the market and then the real thing happens. So I guess that we will just go flat out into around end of June.  Minimum one month to go.

 

The low numbers in "Open Interest" are indicative that a lot of traders already gave up...

 

The machines have done a great job of sopping up the selling, like yesterday for example...

 

Probably the only way we're going to get a correction is off another "flash crash"...

 

You have to kill program trading, when they exceed the collars on the markets, that will do it...

 

So it takes some effort, but I think that's how the correction starts.

 

Probably in the US market intraday.


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http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#9 typicalbear

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 01:46 PM

Some times markets just quietly ....rollover.



#10 dowdeva

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Posted 09 May 2017 - 02:46 PM

I compleely agree, Mark. But now that we have two people on the same page, that's a sell signal...

 

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