7 replies to this topic

[kinga200]

The market has been consolidating as well as the financials.

Given the financials were leading down without the broad market this is saying a top. At least short term.

BUT I think this is a very long term top here for this reason. Financials are weak, very weak here and at a top. Most times they show some effort but not here.

Imho, I think a lot of long investors are going to get hurt here. My IT system went fully short.

With my VST system it has not shown a long or short for a while. This bothers me as well bc it usually does, at least once a week.

We will see

[NAV]

 

 

Imho, I think a lot of long investors are going to get hurt here. My IT system went fully short. 

 

You have been short this market for more than 200+ SPX points, while continually calling a top.  You should be worried, if the market keeps marching higher. 

[NAV]

When the SPX was around the 2330 support, i had mentioned that there is no IT sell and we are headed to new highs. Getting a IT sell requires one of the two things:

 

1) Change in market volatility and break of IT pivots.

 

or

 

2) If the low volatility persists, we need a deep correction (5% or more) which sustains for a week or two. 

 

In the absence of both the market will keep marching higher, no matter what negatives you can come up with. When a market is trading at ATH with no resistance above, under low volatility conditions, it is futile to call IT tops. But yes someday it will inevitably happen. The question always is how much damage it does to your account and psychology, before that happens.

 

I will update when i see an IT sell. Right now there is none (not even a short term or VST signal).

Edited by NAV, 10 May 2017 - 12:34 AM.

[kinga200]

 
 Imho, I think a lot of long investors are going to get hurt here. My IT system went fully short. 

 
You have been short this market for more than 200+ SPX points, while continually calling a top.  You should be worried, if the market keeps marching higher. 

Wait! Not completely as I have been using my VST system with options. Especially calls...check the history.

Yes I still do have my shorts IT and 200 points later And I did for a reason as posted n why. I admit it was early n it's not perfect which is why I keep cash in case it is off. It's called risk management.

AND my IT system is saying down n with Financial not participating on the recent dead cat bounce I stand we are retracing this post election rally...for now.
but it's fair ur post.

[NAV]

 

 

 
 Imho, I think a lot of long investors are going to get hurt here. My IT system went fully short. 

 
You have been short this market for more than 200+ SPX points, while continually calling a top.  You should be worried, if the market keeps marching higher. 

Wait! Not completely as I have been using my VST system with options. Especially calls...check the history.

Yes I still do have my shorts IT and 200 points later And I did for a reason as posted n why. I admit it was early n it's not perfect which is why I keep cash in case it is off. It's called risk management.

AND my IT system is saying down n with Financial not participating on the recent dead cat bounce I stand we are retracing this post election rally...for now.
but it's fair ur post.

 

 

Well, yes you might have offset some of your losses with your VST trades.

 

Your premise is that financials are lagging and you remain short for that reason, which is fair enough. When you went short 200 points down, the financials were rip-roaring higher and leading. Why did you short then, instead of going long ? That nullifies your premise.

[NAV]

Again, sorry i am not trying to pick on you. I have no interest in whether you are long or short. But this is the biggest drawdown on any posted position on this board that i have seen. That has aroused my interest. I will be curious how you manage to get out of this pickle. 

[CLK]

[qqqqtrdr]

Everything looked good for the shorts in Q1, and there are some signs now, but the economic backdrop as far as Q2 GDP ( 3.2 % ), New Home Sales ( 11% ), Wages Increases ( 5.5% ), Earning Releases way better than expected makes me think we can continue for a while... Car Sales are down however.......

 

Barry