9 replies to this topic

[CLK]

All you have to do is buy every hourly broken futures pivot low and sell every new high. Market

psychology dictates that people in general are always looking for the big move which rarely

happens so they hold or add at these breaks. Why not do the opposite and be wrong 

the big move and be right 20 other times fading the break ?

Edited by CLK, 11 May 2017 - 05:37 PM.

[dasein]

so how did it go for you CLK?

[NAV]

 

All you have to do is buy every hourly broken futures pivot low and sell every new high. Market

psychology dictates that people in general are always looking for the big move which rarely

happens so they hold or add at these breaks. Why not do the opposite and be wrong 

the big move and be right 20 other times fading the break ?

 

If you are going to trade on brain farts like this, your account will get decimated in no time. I think you should find a decent money manager and have him invest for long term. Otherwise you are just wasting money on untested ideas.

 

P.S:

 

Trading is simple ?

 

Yes trading as in "trading technique or technical approach" is very simple. A high school kid can learn it. You don't need a high IQ to create a trading technique. Trading as a process is very difficult, probably one of the toughest professions in the world. I am talking about the mental game part of trading (patience, tolerance for extreme pain, operating in a very uncertain environment etc). It's very tough ! That's why you have so few traders and so many analysts. Trading is not a IQ game. It's a EQ game.

Edited by NAV, 11 May 2017 - 10:53 PM.

[alexnewbee]

It is simple when you wins. The difficult part comes is to decide when to take the loss )

[Data]

Here's another simple observation or two. All the gains are on Mondays.  Buy when the SPX is down 0.75% intraday.

[alexnewbee]

Still better - just buy amzn or aapl any time they are red

[CLK]

Closed all, flat. Hourly building steam on the MACD, no new low so not
going long.

[CLK]

Changed my mind, MACD setup. Long.

[lawdog]

I see trading as an art and science. I utilize objective charts and levels, etc., but often I will react in opposite manners to situations that look very similar. The art is the years of experience that gets you beyond just a knee-jerk reaction. I remember in Nov. 1980 I really knew nothing about technical analysis, sentiment, etc., but I started messing around with call/put ratios. I'm not sure when Marty Zweig developed his call/put stuff, but I was looking at option tables in the WSJ and wondered if there was a correlation between the volume in calls and puts. There seemed to be, and I thought I had found the holy grail. I did a few things with the ratios to adjust them for outstanding open interest, because it occurred to me that if there is more open interest, then there will be of necessity more trading as a result of the larger open interest.  I made a bunch of money going long and short in that time period, and then one day I had it "all on black" and Joe Granville issued a sell signal, the market plunged, and my Federal Express options were sent from 3 points in the money to 4 points out of the money, or something like that, with one week to expiration and I was ruined. Learned a lot from that. For one thing, there is no holy grail. The other thing is, losses are important, and you can learn a lot from such mistakes. The other good result is that, because I was wiped out, I couldn't marry my at the time girlfriend, and I'm really glad of that.

[CLK]

Back short, time ran out on the long side.