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Douglas Trading System


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 12 May 2017 - 02:38 PM

The DJIA was below the sell stop(20913)at 3pm so it's hasta la vista at the close today. The risk window yesterday appears to have pegged a low, but lack of follow through today was a bit too much for my lily-livered system. Second guessing the system, I would stay in just to see if the key reversal yesterday holds, but a stop is a stop.

Next week is a real risk cycle turn love-in with nine dropping in with two apparent loci of the activity, Tuesday the 16th and Thursday the 18th.

Regards,
Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 12 May 2017 - 02:46 PM.


#2 opinionated

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Posted 14 May 2017 - 12:43 AM

English?

#3 opinionated

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Posted 14 May 2017 - 12:46 AM

Sorry but some clarity on you thought... my work shows a final attempt at a rally coming Wednesday. Which will fail by 2110 at the most imho then the fireworks to the downside and the real rally in gold and silver. Retail will lead down...

#4 Douglas

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Posted 14 May 2017 - 01:21 AM

Sorry if my note was unclear. Maybe the following will help.
1) Going into Friday my system, which only trades at the end of the day, was long RYDHX
2) The system uses the value of the DJIA at 3 pm in its sell stop calculation
3) At 3pm this past Friday the DJIA was below 20913, the current tight sell stop, so the system sold the RYDHX at the end of day
4) Second guessing the system, I believe it made a mistake in selling out Friday for the following reasons:
* the candle stick Thursday appeared to be a key reversal indicating a bottom
* Thursday had been identified by the system as a potential turn day and although Friday's close was lower, the low was higher
* my Elliott wave count assumes that a small 4th wave finished Thursday and a 5th wave which should march to new highs began
5) Next week my system sees the highest risk of a turn or strong acceleration of the current trend occurring on either Tuesday or Thursday (risk windows)
6) The forward looking portion of my system which only controls the tightness of stops projects a serious turn down in the next week or two
7) So far this year my system is getting its butt kicked by buy and hold due to my tinkering around with the stops in February

Hope the above outline is clearer.

Regards,
Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 14 May 2017 - 01:24 AM.


#5 opinionated

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Posted 14 May 2017 - 11:04 AM

Morning... thanks for the clarity your a great guy for sharing as always. Good trades to you sir.

O

#6 Douglas

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Posted 15 May 2017 - 09:22 AM

Gut 1 - System 0. If this rally has enough staying power today to keep the DJIA above 20970 at 3pm, the system will be forced back in. My concern that the stop forced sell last Friday would be quickly reversed appears to have been well founded. The stop was obviously too tight. At least I got the license number of the truck that ran me over.

If the system is forced back in, hopefully the risk window tomorrow will be an acceleration event not a turn creating yet another whipsaw.

Regards,
Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 15 May 2017 - 09:24 AM.