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[Douglas]

Mea culpa. Every cotton pickin' time I tinker with the system stops I get my fingers burned. Late last week I was convinced the breakout from the recent long consolidation would be quick, sharp and decisive, so I tightened one of the system stops to try to jump in at the first sign of a move either higher or lower. The spike up last Friday broke this newly tightened stop, so the system bought. Apparently I was two-thirds right. The moves were quick and sharp, just not decisive. The Friday move up is being quickly and sharply reversed today, so yet again I have set my self up for another whipsaw. If the DJIA is below 20927 at 3 pm today, the system will be stopped out.

The one bright spot in the system (which I haven't tinkered with thank goodness) are the risk windows. They have been nailing the turns recently. The window yesterday appears to have tagged a high. Unfortunately I have quite a bit less confidence in the exact timing of the next risk window that I have mentioned for this Thursday because it is simply one of the loci in a dense cloud of risk turns (17 in total) stretching into late next week. The next locus is probably next Tuesday or Wednesday, but that's not a high confidence call either. With this much risk, I will be amazed if something wicked does not come our way.

Regards,
Douglas