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Does This Look Bearish to You?


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 07:30 AM

I'm not saying that a lot isn't negative, but does this chart look particularly Bearish, to you?

 


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#2 dowdeva

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 11:15 AM

It's definitely cautionary, and advising hedging risk. MA's are flattening out and the fast line has crossed over the slow line on the MACD, and it is also widening.

 

Now, I remember someone, perhaps even you, saying years ago that the first cross on the MACD is often a fade, particularly when it is way over the 0 line, but still...

 

Time to be careful.

 

Best regards.

 

~D

 

Edit: Mark, why those inputs on the MACD, if not proprietary? Curious.


Edited by dowdeva, 21 May 2017 - 11:17 AM.


#3 arbman

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 12:02 PM

It needs to follow through, look at the new highs vs new lows, the issues over 200 dma, cumulative net volume. I agree that we are likely to see at least sideways for several weeks before topping, seasonally the best rally is ending.

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#4 dowdeva

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 12:19 PM

Note similar contraction/expansion patterns, time frames and dates they occurred with an eye to potential price going forward.  At current moment, it looks like blue framed price pattern may morph into red framed one:

 

 

http://stockcharts.c...7958&listNum=17

 

Best regards to everyone.

 

~D

 

Edit: Still can't figure out how to post stockcharts. Have done everything but howl at the full moon while chanting and dancing around.


Edited by dowdeva, 21 May 2017 - 12:26 PM.


#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 02:57 PM

In StockCharts, under the chart select "Permalink". Then, right-click the chart and select "Copy Image Location". Then create a post here and look at the tool bar. About 2/3's from the left, there's an icon for Stockcharts (mouse-over says "Stockchart"). Click that. Past what you just copied in the dialog box and click OK. Done!


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#6 Charvo

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:38 PM

Junk bonds still look good.  Judging by the foreign markets, liquidity seems to be high.  On the other hand, I think what happened on Wednesday could happen again if DC politics sinks market sentiment.  



#7 tommyt

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 10:12 PM

Mark its the NYSE AD line. The problem with it: its 50:50 on topping after or with the SPX. It can make new highs and SPX doesn't and a down move start sometimes. Adding further evidence to support normally strengthens its case though. Right now most other things don't look quite as strong and are in divergence phases. Decent down move in June is my call, with topping action here first.



#8 arbman

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 11:02 PM

So, can the markets go through significant drawdown even when cumulative A-D hits new highs? Yes. 

 

The key is actually is in its momentum, here's an example from April-Aug 2011, probably there will be a deeper pull back and one more absurd rally;

 

 

This is now;

 


Edited by arbman, 21 May 2017 - 11:04 PM.


#9 Data

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Posted 23 May 2017 - 09:16 AM

AD hasn't been a leading indicator most of the time for a long time since both bonds and stocks are often correlated.  Bonds haven't sold off on this rally.   There's obviously price support activity by the central banks.  They've recently cut back on the gross amount of purchases only to use the purchases on days when the market starts a decline.  Until there's a change in the supply/demand imbalance in bonds, this  won't change.



#10 arbman

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Posted 23 May 2017 - 06:33 PM

Data, stockcharts has also "common stock only" breadth indices and they are not that different at this time either.