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Robert Shiller: Stay in the market because it ‘could go up 50% from here


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#1 NAV

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 11:45 AM

I don't trade on this. But i am starting to see some contrarian signs, which are typical of intermediate term tops. We are slowly getting there. I think one more sharp rally is needed to flush out the stubborn bears. 

 

 

 

https://finance.yaho...-200519075.html

 

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes investors should continue to own stocks because the bull market may continue for years.

 

Shiller developed the "cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio" (CAPE) market valuation measure, which is calculated using price divided by the index's average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation. The economist's research found future 10-year stock market returns were negatively correlated to high CAPE ratio readings on a relative basis.

 

However, even though the current CAPE ratio is at 29, which is above the 17 historical average, the economist is not calling for a market decline.

"I can see it as a real possibility that stocks prices and house prices would both keep going up for years, but I'm not forecasting that by any means," he added.

 

 


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#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 12:09 PM

I feel it is "out there" but not imminent.


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#3 dasein

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 12:35 PM

if you might want to watch Jeff Hirsch

 

https://register.got...510466108737282


best,
klh

#4 libertas

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 02:15 PM

There is no Nobel prize in economics. The prize being awarded is actually “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel,” and should probably be called the Myrdal prize, after the guy who got it started and then arranged to be awarded it. Peter Nobel (great-grandson) says that "Nobel despised people who cared more about profits than society's well-being", saying that "There is nothing to indicate that he would have wanted such a prize", and that the association with the Nobel prizes is "a PR coup by economists to improve their reputation".

 

Friedrich Hayek said in 1974: "The Nobel Prize confers on an individual an authority which in economics no man ought to possess.... This does not matter in the natural sciences. Here the influence exercised by an individual is chiefly an influence on his fellow experts; and they will soon cut him down to size if he exceeds his competence. But the influence of the economist that mainly matters is an influence over laymen: politicians, journalists, civil servants and the public generally."



#5 NAV

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Posted 24 May 2017 - 07:21 PM

Remember this guy Stephen Roach who was bearish the entire rally from 2003-2007 and capitulated near the 2007 top ? Shiller reminds me of that.

 

Anyway, i think this last sharp rally is required to flush the system of the "last few bears left". Bull markets will make all bears throw in the towel, before it's over. If we get another 100-200 SPX points rally, that will do it. You will start seeing the perma bears on this board (the usual suspects) start talking bullish stuff, giving buillish targets. It will happen. It is inevitable. Until then, milk the best out of this bull run.


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#6 opinionated

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 08:16 AM

Looking for a ST high today around ES 2415-17 today....


Edited by opinionated, 25 May 2017 - 08:16 AM.


#7 NAV

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 08:27 AM

And look what Schiller said in 2014. He called it a top back then, based on his CAPE, which was at lower levels than what it is today. So much for experts yes.gif   

 

https://finance.yaho...-004753218.html


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#8 Data

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 09:04 AM

He's only thinking about the Dow, not the S&P 500.   There are other indices, such as the S&P 400 and Russell 2000, that made new highs as well.   There aren't too many portfolios mimicking the Dow and its price-weighting.



#9 gm_general

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Posted 25 May 2017 - 11:13 AM

I can't speak to the "big one", as Fred Sanford might call it, but I expect fireworks when the VIX breaks out of the trend it is in. VIX bottomed today around 9.8 and about 9.6 is the support line. BTW, Gartman turned bullish on tech now.