4 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

With commodities collapsing, and interest rates continuing to trend lower in spite of the FED's "best intentions", is the price of gold indicating that we're in a period of disinflation...or worse??

 

Fib

 

[gannman]

gold imo does well during deflationary times as interest rates collapse that is good for gold 

[Russ]

gold imo does well during deflationary times as interest rates collapse that is good for gold 

That is not what happened in 1980, there was strong inflation and interest rates skyrocketed hitting the 20% level.  

 

According to Armstrong gold will not start to really move until after 2018 and what will drive gold up is a loss of confidence in the major governments of the world, a full blown debt crisis is just around the corner, we can see the cracks starting to happen already, Greece was the start of it and now two banks in Italy have been declared bankrupt, it is a contagion that is just going to keep getting worse and worse. 

 

https://www.armstron...ks-have-failed/

[dougie]

With commodities collapsing, and interest rates continuing to trend lower in spite of the FED's "best intentions", is the price of gold indicating that we're in a period of disinflation...or worse??

 

Fib

 

Fib: are you leaning strongly bearish on GOLD here?

[dharma]

i actually was trading in 1980 . what actually happened is the exchange members, and  they were short silver changed the rules. no buying of silver allowed.,  and this killed the silver/gold bull

the 2 yr tr in gold can be seen as consolidation or indecision. so anything or everything is on the table.   in the 70s bull commodities in general were in a bull market. this lent great support to gold.  the commodity indexes clawing to hold on is not a good sign. however , gold is a little different, not saying "its different this time", gold is a monetary metal . so if the financial system starts to endure great stress it will have a bullish outcome for gold

as previously stated, forgive me i am getting on in years.,  the dna of the 70s bull is highly correlated to this bull. so , while i agree w/marty 18 should be a very good year for the metals,  the fractal begins an ascent this summer , which gains momo into 18

for me , i am bullish here , but w/qualifications.  the market needs to prove it is in an uptrend by taking out 1300 . if not then its wait and see in a scaled back mode. the shorts hit the market when there is ebb in physical demand, its not random. we are coming into diwali buying season. and last month the figures indicated turkey emerged as a 3 rd large buyer w/50 tonnes of sharia buying. this buying helped to keep gold firm and push it to near 1300. so their buying needs to be monitored. when gold physical buying ebbs the shorts come out to play,  but in this last case it was a 60 dollar smack down from the highs. so either the range is getting tighter, and or the physical buying is coming in at higher support #s. the definitive answer will be what the market does.  stay tuned

dharma