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Longer Term Gold, Follow Up

gold precious metals sob sign of the bear

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#1 fib_1618

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Posted 02 July 2017 - 02:38 PM

With this week's slight break of the intermediate trend in gold, we now have a Sign of the Bear advisory in effect. The trigger point of the pattern is noted on the attached chart which includes the Precious Metals McClellan Summation Index which has a current reading of -169 and falling.

More information on the SOB pattern can be found at http://tinyurl.com/gvsk7ch

Fib

pmmcsum063017.png


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#2 johngeorge

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Posted 02 July 2017 - 02:53 PM

Good stuff as always, Fib.  Thank  you. smile.png


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#3 dougie

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Posted 02 July 2017 - 07:53 PM

Triggr line is at 1200?



#4 fib_1618

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Posted 03 July 2017 - 09:02 AM

Trigger line is at 1200?

 

$1201.40 on a closing basis.

 

Fib


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#5 dougie

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Posted 03 July 2017 - 08:20 PM

 

Trigger line is at 1200?

 

$1201.40 on a closing basis.

 

Fib

 

THANKS Fib!

You are really kind to share!



#6 Russ

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Posted 05 July 2017 - 03:11 PM

With the gdx advance decline chart continuing to show higher lows with each pull back of the stocks how is this bearish?

 


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#7 fib_1618

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Posted 05 July 2017 - 05:24 PM

With the gdx advance decline chart continuing to show higher lows with each pull back of the stocks how is this bearish?

 

Since the path of least resistance for the price of gold remains lower on a longer term time scale, the more important technical focus of the pattern is the bearish divergence seen with the early June highs when the price of gold closed above its April peak. Another way of looking at it is that although the internal pattern you're asking about supports a structure of higher lows, the amplitude of this same structure isn't as robust as it was back in the January/February period...as if the spark plugs of the engine were misfiring which allowed prices to only lurch forward and then lose any forward motion just as quickly (and why the price of gold lost $80 in the April/May period). And, of course, the longer and thereby the stronger pattern in your chart shows three declining tops from last August to February and May, and until that trend is broken, the ongoing path of least resistance for prices to continue lower will remain intact,

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 05 July 2017 - 05:25 PM.

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#8 Russ

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Posted 05 July 2017 - 10:10 PM

 

With the gdx advance decline chart continuing to show higher lows with each pull back of the stocks how is this bearish?

 

Since the path of least resistance for the price of gold remains lower on a longer term time scale, the more important technical focus of the pattern is the bearish divergence seen with the early June highs when the price of gold closed above its April peak. Another way of looking at it is that although the internal pattern you're asking about supports a structure of higher lows, the amplitude of this same structure isn't as robust as it was back in the January/February period...as if the spark plugs of the engine were misfiring which allowed prices to only lurch forward and then lose any forward motion just as quickly (and why the price of gold lost $80 in the April/May period). And, of course, the longer and thereby the stronger pattern in your chart shows three declining tops from last August to February and May, and until that trend is broken, the ongoing path of least resistance for prices to continue lower will remain intact,

 

Fib

 

thanks for the explanation, I do agree that another low is coming but to me it looks more like early 2018 could be the final washout and I am also seeing that FAZ (3X Financial Bear ETF) looks like it is going to peak then too, so that means interest rates are going to go up aggressively into then which should also drive the dollar up as it attracts capital from Europe as Europe gets into deep stuff with it's debts  and ultimately those same higher interest rates will also lead to bigger debt problems in the USA too, which is what Armstrong has been saying for a long time.


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#9 fib_1618

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Posted 08 July 2017 - 10:11 AM

 

Trigger line is at 1200?

 

$1201.40 on a closing basis.

 

Fib

 

I made an error on the trigger point as I was looking at the wrong bottom...it should had been the May 9th lows at $1216.10.

 

My apologies for not catching it sooner.

 

Fib


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#10 dougie

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Posted 09 July 2017 - 06:37 PM

You sure now?

May I ask, are you now short or were you short?







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