16 replies to this topic

[arbman]

There is a cyclical low due now in early August, but it won't matter. The market absorbed all of the important selling. I see a rally to SPX 2500 area in two steps now. The cumulative volume started to really pick up last week despite the selling...

 

For the week, there is about 50% chance to revisit the lows around low SPX 2400s around the middle of the week. The chances to revisit the recent highs or higher is at over 70% odds. 

 

For the Intermediate term, the first rally starts from this week to 2470 until July 21-23 time frame and then a pull back to early August and a rally until September to 2500 (with some room for error). It looks volatile, this is unlikely to be a one way trend. 

 

The first target to 2450-2470 will be confirmed, if the prices close above 2434 this week...

 

Best of luck. 

Edited by arbman, 02 July 2017 - 11:06 PM.

[arbman]

This is my most bearish chart, all others projections are holding above 2430. 

 

 

It is quite likely that the market will slingshot to 2470 by July 21 and make 2450 the new support by early August.

 

I would like to really see the lows tested around mid this week though, there are a lot of statistical cases where at least 2415-2420 is revisited in such a low where CCI(20) was less than -100, or sharp decline with more than 1.5 standard deviations.

Edited by arbman, 02 July 2017 - 11:49 PM.

[alexnewbee]

Thank you. I have a bit different view. ST up to 2440 (may be 2455), then down to 2320, up in Aug to 2420, then the real selling starts. IMHO

[salam]

Thank You Arbman.

 

The range and pivot points have altered slightly, and so here is my FF.

 

Retest of 2404 this week and then a rally to OPEX to 2450-2500 range were we will swing range bound with low volume July/August.

 

End August Sept down to 2300 area and then rally back to 2405....then 2000

Edited by salam, 03 July 2017 - 04:36 AM.

[arbman]

Alex, I don't see a big decline to begin until September, but I do see a decline into October...

 

 

Thank You Arbman.

 

The range and pivot points have altered slightly, and so here is my FF.

 

Retest of 2404 this week and then a rally to OPEX to 2450-2500 range were we will swing range bound with low volume July/August.

 

End August Sept down to 2300 area and then rally back to 2405....then 2000

 

As I said, I see a big decline from August-September time frame into the second week of October, however not until Septemberish anymore. Of course, it's subject to change with the market, maybe we get a huge drop around late July till early August...

 

The odds do not favor a retest of the lows near term (2400-2410), but a pull back and volatility is quite possible down to 2415-2425 again. Thank you for your input.

[arbman]

I think the limited upside mileage will come from energy and materials sectors, typical of a major top formation, this summer.

 

Energy sector is still at the lows, I think it's a speculative buy...

[12SPX]

This is my most bearish chart, all others projections are holding above 2430. 

 

 

It is quite likely that the market will slingshot to 2470 by July 21 and make 2450 the new support by early August.

 

I would like to really see the lows tested around mid this week though, there are a lot of statistical cases where at least 2415-2420 is revisited in such a low where CCI(20) was less than -100, or sharp decline with more than 1.5 standard deviations.

 

What happened to the chart down to 2300 first?

[arbman]

 

What happened to the chart down to 2300 first?

 

 

 

These are the comps coming through now, this is why I wanted to update everyone.

 

We had a 50 points drop for SPX from the peak and the selling got absorbed.

 

Basically, the market didn't break down on time and comps changed...

 

 

There is still a chance of sizeable decline this week, but lower odds and it's unlikely to be too far down.

 

Then a rally and another selloff, the volatility will continue to increase in my opinion.

 

 

I have these comps for August...

 

 

THIS IS LOW ODDS, correlations are not good enough...

 

 

 

This is pretty much an average case...

 

 

 

I also have cyclical patterns and they are also pointing out for a low until July 20-23 time frame....

Edited by arbman, 03 July 2017 - 10:16 AM.

[arbman]

The above models are comps from the past 40 years...

 

 

Here are the static pattern extractions for up to 150 days (I used the trend for longer cycles here), these are also pointing out for a low around here and then another rally and a low around early August.

 

The histograms show the patterns periods and their eigenvalues after the solver, I also put the patterns (eigenvectors) of a few dominant patterns, but all other patterns are out there as well in the final summation...

 

Static patterns;

 

 

The adaptive model changes over time to fit to the latest data;

 

Edited by arbman, 03 July 2017 - 10:39 AM.

[arbman]

I also looked at the other market correlations and considered different cases... 

 

Unfortunately, I was able to find only 10 historical cases with the similar market conditions over the past 40 years...

 

I see about 70% odds to revisit 2420 this week...

 

 

These are their price patterns since 6/29/2017.