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Stopped out on R2K short from mid Monday


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#1 viccarter

viccarter

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Posted 12 July 2017 - 10:07 AM

Doesn't happen this way too often that it catches me wrongfooted.   Obviously didn't like the action of yesterday being so low volatility "classic short a dull market", but other factors at play, one of them being my subjective lack of seeing a lot of bearish stuff of social media lead me to not just scratch it.  Market outlook also lead to erroneous decision to let go of XOP and GDXJ longs that I picked up Friday close and had such a big profit cushion to let them work a few days rather than closing Monday.

 

Bigger picture:  Do I think this is some type of long breakout in R2K.  NO!!!  Absolutely not.

 

Also, I see a chance that this is an funky stutter step prior to a major move the opposite way.  I've seen it happen.  I took the stop because I play the highest percentage play, not ifs and maybes.  I set stops and when they're hit, they're hit.



#2 Rich C

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Posted 13 July 2017 - 09:19 PM

JP Morgan reports in the morning before the open.  A good report from them and all the banks will probably go up.  Earnings season kicks off and various touts are looking for 6 - 8% increase in earnings YOY.  The weakened dollar will provide a slight tailwind for the multinationals.  I've been buying in each day, equal amount in SPY, using the gain from previous investments as a buffer against a loss.  If earnings are coming in good, I think we'll be safe from a big hit until earnings season is almost over, that would be mid August. 

 

The debt ceiling debate will come up in a couple of months, that could go down poorly.  N Korea, Trump / Russia news, failure on healthcare could shake confidence.  Many risks, I hope they hold off for a month.


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My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months.