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July 19, 2017 Update

SPX GDX

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#1 blustar

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 09:35 AM

Very unusual for the hourly B Band to constrict the way it did and go up instead of down.  This is still basically a 'b' wave which turns into a 'y' wave.  Two trines are present: yesterday's Venus tri Jupiter (late in the day, so we see it today), a very positive trine and the next, Mercury trine Saturn later today before the market closes.
 
The larger 3 week low is due Thursday (tomorrow) and we have another trine on Monday (Mercury trine Uranus), which is also a delta top with Venus opposite Saturn. Three weeks ago, Thursday was down big.  Tomorrow also sees Sun sq. Uranus (something unexpected) as the Sun joins Mars in this position.
 
My best guess is we see Thursday down big and Friday into Monday sees a huge rally.  There is no way we have seen the 8 TD low yet (due Friday +/- 2 TD's) last running 7 TD's.
 
Mars also enters Leo on the 20th with the moon in Gemini all day (a mutable sign).  The moon tends to make stock market lows when in Gemini and Sagittarius.
 
Friday was a top and today is a top three days later, next is the expected top on Monday.  I call these 4 TD moves little skippers as they run 3 TD's instead of 4.  Monday is also the three week top from July 3 (which was a 16 TD top). This makes 14 TD's for the 16 TD cycle top with an 8 and 6.
 
On an e-wave basis the last C wave up came from around 2441 SPX so that could easily get taken out by Thursday.
 
I'm waiting for the trine that comes later today to show itself before committing anything to the short side via puts or volatility etf's.
 

Standing aside on GDX awaiting a pull back into Thursday's 8 TD low.  GDX's 2 TD rally looks to be Thursday/Monday.  The trend is still up, but a pull back is needed here, IMO.
 


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#2 trioderob

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 01:03 PM

why not just ride the trend up instead ?



#3 pdx5

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 04:27 PM

Ignore this chart of funnymentals so long as Trump is in WH, Tax cuts & Repeal are alive.

We are headed for 45 ratio like in 2000.

ouy7av.png


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#4 Rich C

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 05:42 PM

Ignore this chart of funnymentals so long as Trump is in WH, Tax cuts & Repeal are alive.

We are headed for 45 ratio like in 2000

 

Ratio of what to what?  Doesn't look like P/E ratio, as the forward is at 19 and 12 month trailing is at 23 (S&P).


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#5 cycletimer

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 07:34 PM

A big cycle turn was today, next one is August 18 (which happens to be Option Expiration). Late October (10/24-26)is largest cycle turn of all? Will it mark the yearly low?

#6 pdx5

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Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:15 PM

 

Ratio of what to what?  Doesn't look like P/E ratio, as the forward is at 19 and 12 month trailing is at 23 (S&P).

 

 

It is Shiller PE ratio. Read more at http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/


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#7 pisces

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Posted 20 July 2017 - 05:51 AM

 

Very unusual for the hourly B Band to constrict the way it did and go up instead of down.  This is still basically a 'b' wave which turns into a 'y' wave.  Two trines are present: yesterday's Venus tri Jupiter (late in the day, so we see it today), a very positive trine and the next, Mercury trine Saturn later today before the market closes.
 
The larger 3 week low is due Thursday (tomorrow) and we have another trine on Monday (Mercury trine Uranus), which is also a delta top with Venus opposite Saturn. Three weeks ago, Thursday was down big.  Tomorrow also sees Sun sq. Uranus (something unexpected) as the Sun joins Mars in this position.
 
My best guess is we see Thursday down big and Friday into Monday sees a huge rally.  There is no way we have seen the 8 TD low yet (due Friday +/- 2 TD's) last running 7 TD's.
 
Mars also enters Leo on the 20th with the moon in Gemini all day (a mutable sign).  The moon tends to make stock market lows when in Gemini and Sagittarius.
 
Friday was a top and today is a top three days later, next is the expected top on Monday.  I call these 4 TD moves little skippers as they run 3 TD's instead of 4.  Monday is also the three week top from July 3 (which was a 16 TD top). This makes 14 TD's for the 16 TD cycle top with an 8 and 6.
 
On an e-wave basis the last C wave up came from around 2441 SPX so that could easily get taken out by Thursday.
 
I'm waiting for the trine that comes later today to show itself before committing anything to the short side via puts or volatility etf's.
 

Standing aside on GDX awaiting a pull back into Thursday's 8 TD low.  GDX's 2 TD rally looks to be Thursday/Monday.  The trend is still up, but a pull back is needed here, IMO.
 

 

 

thursday will be NO big low. your analysis [astro and all] is best described as "Windmills of the mind"

 

my call is:today till mon , very small setback if any[limited to SP 2440 +_] then on up to 2500 in Aug.which should offer resistance,as did 2300 and 2400 SP. then higher into yearend.lets see if we can take that to the Bank , zorro.gif



#8 blustar

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Posted 20 July 2017 - 03:12 PM

The irregular top took into Thursday.  Lots of topping energy here. The three week low still beckons and now my down side target is increased to 2400 for Tuesday. I bought SPY puts today for next Wed. 243.50 at .12


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#9 blustar

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Posted 20 July 2017 - 03:14 PM

I can see SPX 2489 by August 9, but 2263 by Sept 1 then strong up into mid October well above 2500.


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#10 pisces

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Posted 20 July 2017 - 03:41 PM

I can see SPX 2489 by August 9, but 2263 by Sept 1 then strong up into mid October well above 2500.

 

I can see part of that , but the sept 1 low more like 2300-2330...FWIW.yes.gif







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