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#41 Rich C

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Posted 08 September 2018 - 06:03 PM

The new all-time high on the S&P signals the bull market continues.  I thought we'd have a short shallow correction and we have so far.  Will it stop here?  I don't know, but I am getting interested in a little buying.  There's been some significant damage in "big tech", and I think it will blow over.  I have my eye on GOOG.  I'm even casting an eye at EEM, not until we see a good bottom form, but eventually....  For my lazy side, SPY will do.  I haven't pulled the trigger on this, but I'm watching.  Earnings season starts around 10/10.  There is risk if Trump pulls the trigger on larger tariffs on China.


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My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#42 Rich C

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Posted 13 September 2018 - 09:39 AM

I have been buying in for a swing trade since 9/8, am almost all in, mostly SPY.  Bad news could upset the market for a few days, but I think going into earnings season around 10/10, we will be getting good news from most.  Some companies may post negative surprise based on higher input costs caused by the tariffs, and the dollar will put a small headwind on multinationals.  The tax cuts will cover some problems for two more quarters.  We are also entering the historically better half of the year, Oct. - Apr., when optimism for the high S&P earnings estimates for next year will buoy the market later in the year.  The dems seem poised to take back the house and with divided govt. not much will get done for 2 years; that could be a good thing, but in the short run I doubt it will be viewed that way.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#43 Rich C

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 08:20 AM

I sold a few profitable positions last week, but I am still heavy in SPY.  All markets eventually have to adjust to higher rates when they have enjoyed sustained success.  They wobble for a while, but usually regain their footing.

 

I took a different approach in my weekly blog update, and I thought some of you may find it interesting (hit the link below).  It's nothing earth shattering, the heavy weights on this site will consider it elementary.  I try to target beginning to intermediate investors with enough meat to be useful, without taking up too much of their time.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#44 Rich C

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Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:40 AM

I got 1/3 out of the market before the woosh caught me on Wed. and Thur.  At that point, I decided to hold for the JPM earnings on Friday.  I'm buying some today for a bounce.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#45 Rich C

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Posted 23 October 2018 - 09:51 AM

Bailed out today.  Will wait for some stability.  Support is a way down from here.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#46 Rich C

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Posted 21 November 2018 - 12:53 PM

I am still sitting this out, but am thinking about when to re-enter.


Edited by Rich C, 21 November 2018 - 12:55 PM.

Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#47 Rich C

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Posted 27 November 2018 - 09:54 AM

We may be looking at a trading range from 2640 to 2820, there's a double top at 2820.  It is not conclusive that there is a double bottom at 2640 as that move has not ended yet.  Since my monthly long term view is that the bull market has not ended yet, I decided to step in and gingerly buy some fallen quality stocks that pay dividends.  Planning on a short term trade as I expect volatility to be the name of the game.  We're not going to get the big earnings gains in 2019 that we got this year, courtesy of the tax cut.  Tack on rate hikes and tariff war, headwinds, headwinds next year.

 

As we are late in the bull market and interest rates have finally risen enough to be interesting, I allocated some funds to t-bills and notes, longest maturity is one year so I can reinvest in a year and capture the interest rate hikes, assuming the yield curve does not go negative, or if so, at least not much and I can still get a higher yield than currently.  I'm sticking with quality since I take a dim view of the current high budget deficit on top of the huge debt we piled up bailing the nation out of the financial crisis.  We should not be running an $800 billion deficit that is growing to $900 billion next year, when we have an otherwise sound economy.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#48 Rich C

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Posted 10 January 2019 - 12:29 AM

I stayed out of the market mostly through the first 3 weeks of Dec., then started putting some low ball buy orders on individual stocks and a few hit.  This year I started buying some index ETFs, but I'm skittish and I could be out of them quickly.  Based on the action the next couple of days, I may put a close trailing stop loss on the ETFs if progress weakens.

 

As bad as the market has been since Oct., it seems unlikely that we will have a neat V shaped recovery.  We may have to test the late Dec. low.

 

I continue to look at my asset allocation and add to my CD and bond component, adding some there in the 2, 3 and 4 year range.  I'm retired and had nothing there for the last decade.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#49 Rich C

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 09:05 PM

I sold a lot on Friday, we're up at resistance.  If we get a little pullback and successful test of the late Dec. low, I would start to buy at that point.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months. 


#50 Rich C

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Posted 07 February 2019 - 07:23 PM

I added back some small positions since mid Jan., today I lightened up a bit.  Obviously we've come a long way quickly and are due for a little correction.  We're up against the 200 day moving average and RSI had reached nearly overbought.  That may be close enough.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months.