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#51 Rich C

Rich C

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Posted 15 February 2019 - 09:38 PM

We're above the 200 day moving average for 3 days, a good sign.  But the market is overbought.  It looks like we're trading on a dovish Fed and progress on the China trade talks, and ignoring weak economic fundamentals.  Housing is slow, factory orders weak, retail sales are light, consumer confidence has been shaken (but rebounded last month, a bit), and the analysts have revised first quarter earnings to a slight decrease vs. the year prior quarter although that won't really get into the market until April 10th and beyond.  Seems to me the market is focused on the wrong thing, although the market doesn't ask me what it is supposed to focus on...  I'm cautious.


Edited by Rich C, 15 February 2019 - 09:39 PM.

Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.


#52 Rich C

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Posted 02 March 2019 - 12:29 PM

Two weeks on, and I would re-write what I wrote mid-February.  We're overbought short term and up against the double top resistance from last Oct. and Nov. at 2815.  If we can decisively break above that, the complexion would change.  I keep voting "partially long, and neutral" in the daily poll, which is where I am.


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.


#53 Rich C

Rich C

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 06:49 PM

I changed my vote in the daily poll to "partially long" and bearish today.  I bought a very small piece of SDS yesterday for a short term trade.  I don't like to go short in a primary bull market, at least not in a big way.  In my long term topic in the Long-Term Investing forum, my monthly update said I think we remain in a primary bull market.

 

My philosophy is that the most important piece of information in investing is "are we in a primary bull or bear market".  It all starts there, and I think it applies to more than the stock market; it applies to real estate, bonds, gold, you name it.  That is why once a month I take a time out and ask that question about the stock market.

 

So much of what we know about how to operate in a bull market is mirror image opposite in a bear market.  So, it is vital to answer the question, and hopefully you get it right!


Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com

 

My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.