12 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

There is no 1920 low unless it's on the calendar.   Once you start throwing out distant dates, whether it's Prechter's 1920 low or Dailio's 75-year cycle, there is a large amount of room for error, variation, or re-interpretation, regardless of whether the forecaster is good or not. I think the same skeptcism can be applied for forecasts that are too precise and appear to be just retrofitting analysis

1920's, actually 1921, start date is 5/2/21 about a third the way up to the peak before the low

[Geomean]

The Hurst analysis using the May 2, 1921 start date morphed in last night's update.  It now supports the view that a top here would of minor wave 3, with a retrace 4 and minor 5 ahead.

[Data]

Caldero was reviewed a long time ago.   He underperformed the market by a large margin.  

 

https://www.cxoadvis...-wave-outlooks/

 

It appeared to me that he often hedged his calls by calling for turns so that his record tended to converge with that of the market when the declines did occur.