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Potential DeMark Sequential Sell Signal in the SPX Daily Chart


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#1 Geomean

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 02:26 PM

An SPX close today above 2472.10 would complete a DeMark TD Sequential™ 13 sell signal in the SPX daily chart. Once the signal prints, DeMark considers a daily close below the prior 4 closes a conservative entry for a short.  An hourly TDSEQh13 sell signal printed in the SPX on 7/26 -- 3 bars before the ATH (so far) bar.


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#2 q4wer

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:07 PM

We close 2476 today.  Apple is up on earning.    Will an up day tomorrow invalidate the sell signal?



#3 dasein

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:20 PM

think most TD signals need a trigger - but we have been here before@! TDs show exhaustion or potential exhaustion so they arent really capable of being invalidated, IMO - they are not the trigger. but Geo is more educated than i am.


best,
klh

#4 GDA

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 04:20 PM

Nope, the count will go on until a sell signal eventually materializes.

TDM is one of the most random systems, yet for some reason continues to have a wide following.



#5 Geomean

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Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:01 PM

We close 2476 today.  Apple is up on earning.    Will an up day tomorrow invalidate the sell signal?


It could. DeMark counsels that the user select either 1x or 2x the range of day 13 and add that to the high of day 13 in order to establish stops ( if the aggressive entry is made) or invalidation. In addition, the user can select settings whereby the 13 would be "recycled" ( i.e. removed from the chart) if an second TD Set Up 9 count completes before and/or subsequent to the 13. This particular 13 ignores the subsequent set up 9 that printed over the past few weeks and completed a few days ago and starts its count at the end of the prior set up 9 and stays on the chart.

Also, there would have been no mention of this print without the ability to count a completed v of minor 3 and to ID a concurrent Hurst cycle high window.

It does not appear that Apple is having much impact on the SPX (it was up 2 as this is drafted) compared to the Dow and the NDX where it's given more weight. The Dow is now in an exhaustion zone and has hit key fib targets.
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#6 Geomean

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Posted 02 August 2017 - 09:51 AM

So far its looking like this may be an effective signal.  In those instances where there is a price flip immediately after the signal lower than the four prior trading days closes,  DeMark found there were high odds of continuation of the trend reversal. 


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#7 kgr142

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Posted 02 August 2017 - 05:20 PM

Hello Geo, the daily SPX TDSq 13 occurred on July 26th (at the open) with a RiskLevel @ 2488.44.



#8 kgr142

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Posted 02 August 2017 - 05:41 PM

You must have Intersection (delays the start of the Count 1 to June 14th) enabled in your code and have the Termination Count (13 Count bar) set to Close so the 13 would then be Aug 1st.


Edited by kgr142, 02 August 2017 - 05:41 PM.


#9 Geomean

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Posted 10 August 2017 - 07:36 AM

I keep two TDSEQ's with different settings (Perl's settings for one + Tom's per his book).  Both are set to require intersection to begin countdown and qualification to complete it.  I use closes for the counts.


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