S&P 500 CASH
SPX CASH: Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1103; Low - 1095
SEPT SP: Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1102; Low - 1094
SPX CASH: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1115; Low - 1090
SEPT SP: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1114; Low - 1089
SPX CASH: onthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1120; Low - 1058
SPX CASH: Yearly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1274; Low - 950
Current SPX Index Postures:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = BULLISH from 1130.53 (25% position)
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = 50% BEARISH from 1107.91 (intraday today)
From previous outlook: “With this, the 10 day cycle is in normal topping region, and the light volume action could be again a sign that a top for this component may not be far off. Going to some statistical analysis on the 10 day cycle, 80% of the recent up phases for this component have lasted 5 trading days, while 80% of the same have also stopped their advance at 8 trading days. Going to the down phase stats on the same cycle from the last 10 rotations of this component (which I think may be more of a representation of the current market), 8 out of the 10 have seen declines of 1.4% or greater off the top. The inference with this information is that the current 10 day cycle up phase should last at least 5 trading days before peaking but not more than 8 trading days, and should then be followed by a correction in the neighborhood of 1.4% or better going into the trough for this same 10 day cycle. If the 10 day cycle peaks in the range of 1108-1116 SPX CASH then that could see the index returning back to the 1092 (1108 * 1.4%) to the 1100 (1116 *1.4%) as this cycle bottoms out in the coming days. Since we are now 5 trading days along on the 10 day cycle’s up phase, we know that odds will lean in favor of a smaller top with this cycle between now and Thursday’s close.”
Current analysis: The 10 day cycle top looks like it came with the test of the 200 day moving average in Monday’s session; prices rallied early today for a tag of 1104, but then began to retreat in earnest in late afternoon trading, hitting 1098 at the intraday lows and closing near the same level. Volume came in at just over 1.3 billion shares, which is about a 4% increase from the numbers seen in Monday’s session, and confirms the fact that a lower intraday low should be seen in Wednesday’s session.
As per last night, 80% of the corrections with the 10 day cycle have been in the 1.4% range or better, which would indicate a possible test of the 1092 area or lower is underway. With that, I also went back on the charts over a year and took a look at 10 day cycles that were the first 10 day cycle of a larger 20 day cycle within an even larger 45 day cycle bottom (in other words, similar to where we should be at right here); 80% of these took at least 2 trading days before the 10 day cycle bottomed, while 80% of the same bottomed within 5 trading sessions. In other words, the current drop off the 10 day top should last from 2-5 trading days. Today’s decline was day number one, so we want to be on the lookout for a low to form as early as Wednesday’s session and probably no later than Friday or Monday of next week.
Added to the above, we would also want to see the current drop holding at or above the 1078 swing low from last week - and ideally not seeing a daily close below the 1084 level, which is the lowest close that was seen on the recent drop down. If the 20 day cycle is going to go on to make a test of the 1118 region or higher then we cannot go back below 1078 or this would negate this cycle’s upward phase and instead be our indication that this same cycle has turned back to the downside.
Otherwise, with the larger 45 day cycle we know that, assuming the recent swing low holds the downside in the coming days, that the 45 day cycle should make a try at the 45-50 day moving average, which is also near the 1118 level - which is right at the 20 day cycle’s upside target. We know from our statistical studies on this particular cycle that 80% of the up phases of this component have seen rallies of 13 trading days or more with time, which would favor that the current move up off this cycle’s bottom will not peak out before August 12, 2004. As per last night‘s notes, there is a minor Bradley turning point date that is next due on August 11, 2004 - which is very close to the 12th date noted above.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1392 - Low, 1366
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1432 - Low, 1380
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1457 - Low, 1302
Current NDX Index Postures:
Mid-Term (6-8 weeks) = 40% BULLISH from 1392.54 (intraday today)
Short-term (1 day - 3 weeks) = 50% BULLISH from 1392.01
From previous outlook: “As with the SPX, the 10 day cycle should be closing in on a peak here. If it was not made at the 1412 swing peak, then it should do so ideally as close to the 1432 weekly projected resistance high as possible, which might look best here if seen before the closing of trading on Thursday. Once complete we will probably be looking at a 2% drop or better as this same 10 day cycle works on a low on this index. For the larger picture, the 45 day moving average is going to act as the price attractor with the up phase of the 45 day cycle on this index.”
Current analysis: The NDX also attempted an early day rally, stalled below resistance, and then sold off into late session. At the intraday low the index tagged 1379, and also managed to close at the same level - which implies a lower low will be seen in Wednesday’s session. Volume here once again came in at about 1.5 billion shares, which is about equal with the volume seen in Tuesday’s session and makes no bullish or bearish inference here.
The 10 day cycle looks to also be in it’s down phase here, with the drop off the 1412 swing top now over 2% - normal with the 10 day cycle down phases on this index. Ideally, this drop should last into Wednesday’s session and then bottom there or possibly stretch into some point in Thursday’s session. If the 20 and 45 day cycles are pointed up, then we should also hold above the 1359 swing low on a close, and then firm back up for a try at the 45 day moving average on the daily chart.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
email me: jcurry@cycle-wave.com
website link: www.cyclewave.homestead.com
Disclaimer:
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be profitable. The methods Used to form opinions are highly probable and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in them. The Market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or omissions.
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