It's been a couple of months since my last update. Here is where the SPX (yellow line) is compared to the seasonal forecast. As you can see, the SPX is tracking the blue forecast remarkably well so far. In my last update, the blue forecast was calling for a seasonal correction in late June to early July. We did indeed get a correction in that time frame, albeit a minor one. The forecast also called for a strong rally in July and early August. We did indeed see a July rally, but it was muted compared to the forecast. As a result, the yellow line has fallen below the blue forecast line for only the third time this year.
Going forward, the blue forecast suggests the SPX is near a short term high, and a potentially sharp correction could occur in the next 1-2 weeks. The dip should be short-lived and should be bought for another rally into an early October high.
As always, never rely on a single forecast/indicator. Do your own analysis to corroborate this work.