12 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

go back to july 24 and read the posts on this board

[tommyt]

My own guesstimate is that 10 out of 12 expo's a year are up weeks...2 are not. And those 2 are probably nice downers. This time of year, like clockwork, normally forms an August high for a pullback/correction/crash into Sept/Oct. Like WWW, it almost never fails, some years small, some big. This year the setup is very good right now for some sort of high, I wouldn't say WWW is any lock this go round. Continuing to hold Oct VIX call spreads and waiting for all of those robots/self adjusting brokerage accounts/VIX funds shorting VIX to unwind ALL AT THE SAME TIME. A shock is coming to these VIX funds IMO...no one is prepared for ANY kind of unwind with all of this new VIX short leverage out there. Gundlach is dead right, its a complete unknown for a first real correction. This is not even a big bear call, just a mechanical lesson that will be handed out soon.

[da_cheif]

My own guesstimate is that 10 out of 12 expo's a year are up weeks...2 are not. And those 2 are probably nice downers. This time of year, like clockwork, normally forms an August high for a pullback/correction/crash into Sept/Oct. Like WWW, it almost never fails, some years small, some big. This year the setup is very good right now for some sort of high, I wouldn't say WWW is any lock this go round. Continuing to hold Oct VIX call spreads and waiting for all of those robots/self adjusting brokerage accounts/VIX funds shorting VIX to unwind ALL AT THE SAME TIME. A shock is coming to these VIX funds IMO...no one is prepared for ANY kind of unwind with all of this new VIX short leverage out there. Gundlach is dead right, its a complete unknown for a first real correction. This is not even a big bear call, just a mechanical lesson that will be handed out soon.

Gundlach   celebrates a one year anniversary of this last idiots fawx pas

 

http://www.barrons.c...gold-1468036872

[tommyt]

its too bad that your massive bullishness isnt allowing you to see what Gundlach is saying here...its not a bull/bear thing, its a mechanical reaction that will take place (is taking place) because there is too much new leverage in VIX related products. Even a small sell off AND the thought of bad happening could cause many of these VIX product players to run and cover. Keep selling the VIX juice is all I can say. I'll sell you some when you are buying it at VIX 15-20.

[da_cheif]

there have been many gundlachs spouting that kinda ******** over the last 40 years or so...wouldnt you agree?

[alexnewbee]

Yep, VIX is the thing that will rape the bulls, at least in the ST.

[da_cheif]

being a bull is dirty work.....but somebody has to do it.....675ono

[alexnewbee]

being a bull is dirty work.....but somebody has to do it.....675ono

GL

[tommyt]

"there have been many gundlachs spouting that kinda ******** over the last 40 years or so...wouldnt you agree?"

 

no, I wouldn't...again, Gundlach isnt spewing a big bearish call, but acknowledging a recent issue in the VIX leverage arena that will go through an adjustment.

[tommyt]

Gundlach already right as VIX hits 15.  I let a few Oct vix calls go at this first target.