37 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

So if you have read my many posts this week, you know that the way I address markets is technical.  I am a technician, and as a technician the one thing that I try to avoid is personal bias.  By doing that, I don't interject what I think, or the outcome I would like to see into my work and muck it up.  Now for me this is very quantifiable, because numbers speak for themselves... whether that be the pinpoint targeted turns you saw me post this week... Including the actual target of the decline on Nasdaq... This is the easy part of my job, I have a methodology I developed by tweaking other techniques and the results speak for themselves...  Anyone who is a day trader should subscribe to my daily forecasts, because I break it down into sectors, primary commodities and a couple of feature stocks that gives an overall picture of the market...  with very specific support and resistance guidance.

 

Now the tougher part of my job is to extend from the daily targeting that constitutes my work and the content of my forecast service and extend into the longer term view... For the most part now, I have accepted that there was a bottom in the market on March 6th, 2009 and subscribers can dial back into my forecasts and see that I was looking for a bottom, For 3/6/2009:

 

My suspicions that we would go even lower on Thursday were more than confirmed. Today We tested the 680 Support Line from the 1996 resistance I outlined for you over last weekend, as well as the 678 ABC Down Target. We did manage to close over 680 at 682, and while that is a hopeful sign, we cannot rule out even further weakness for Friday. We are in pioneer territory searching for a bottom, I still expect a turn back up into 3/12. We did get a bounce off the 680 test as I had expected today, now we are about to find out if it is going to stick or become solid resistance

 

 

Until now, we've been in a bull market trend for a very long time, and right now there some technicals that are sending me a message that this is about to change...

 

First of all this pullback we've experienced over the past few weeks has been a CORRECTIVE pullback on progressively lighter volume for most of the issues I cover...

 

However the one and most important sectors that I cover is the BKX, and for that one, we have an acceleration in volume to the downside.  GS seems to have anticipated the downturn, there was never really much of a bounce, but let's face it they always know what's coming... because - largely - it's THEM (and their expansive power-grid of clients) THAT WAS COMING. 

 

Now another factor... I look at MONTHLY CHARTS to try to anticipate what's ahead... As you may have read, I have been very bearish on DB for a long time, and you can search my content under this for more info, or research it yourself... but NOW we are STARTING TO GET THE TECHNICAL INDICATION OF A BREAKDOWN...

 

DB tested the March 2017 - LAST MONTHLY HIGHEST VOLUME LOW of 16.46 (I call these Strongest Volume candles - REFERENCE CANDLES - because they establish SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE)... for March 2017 - was broken on Thursday and is breaking down that Monthly low, having already tested the price on what looks to be...MUCH STRONGER VOLUME... but WHEN?  In August?  This makes no sense.  I just told you the rest of the market is pulling back on lighter volume...

 

So there's trouble there... I can just say this with some degree of clarity... DB will test it's SEPT 2016 Low ($11.16 for NY ADR) in our near future...

 

Now as I said, the rest of the market doesn't know that the MARKET HAS BROKEN, but these banks DO KNOW IT.  And it's very clear, unless your bias gets in the way, to see it.

 

Folks, when the banks break, it's no longer anything to do about the RETURN ON YOUR CAPITAL, and it boils down to RETURN OF YOUR CAPITAL.  So I periodically say this, but be very sure about what's in your account, the health of who is holding your funds, and try to protect yourselves from COUNTERPARTY RISK.

 

[kssmibotm]

Semi - I respect your work and appreciate you sharing it on FF.  I looked at my monthly charts of SPY and BKX, and I see nothing to indicate a big decline is coming.  The DB chart is another story.  It has been in a bear market since 2007, but DB is certainly not a proxy for the rest of the market.  Maybe your indicators are just earlier than mine, and mine will start to turn in the next month or two.  To do that though, there would have to be some major technical damage to the uptrend in Sep and Oct.  Until then, I remain a cautious bull.

[SemiBizz]

 

DB is certainly not a proxy for the rest of the market.

 

OK, I can quote you.

[SemiBizz]

 

So the questions you have to ask about DB...

 

Why did it tank on the North Korea News?  Last time I checked they are in Germany...

 

And this week, why did it tank on Trump's problems...?

 

That should have been considered a victory for Frau Merkel... 

 

Handwriting is on the wall...

[Geomean]

IMHO your analysis is sound. The Philly Bank index is around 93 and in a multi year decline. Hurst analysis points to a 11.2 year cycle high at its March 2017@$98 peak. It is projected to be around 85 in Q4 and on its way into the 50's and ultimately into the 30's over a number of years.

[opinionated]

I have many opinions and am often wrong as my TA is not at a level of some here, BUT one thing I can say is the one person as much as or more than many here is Semi knows his crap...  This shared opinion of his makes me take notice because I have learned over the years when Tom talks one should at least pay attention and maybe dig a little deeper. He is not a good fade by any stretch of the imagination.

 

Thx Semi...

 

Please keep us updated.

 

Keith

[kssmibotm]

 

 

DB is certainly not a proxy for the rest of the market.

 

OK, I can quote you.

 

 

Absolutely!  Since May 2007, DB down 89% and SPY up 59%.  The numbers speak for themselves.

[tradesurfer]

I agree with semi here. But I will say that that hardest thing to do is be ultra bearish in the early phases of a decline .

The new highs new lows against the 10 day moving average crossed down for first time since nov 2016. Then also the percent of stocks a above 50dma is plunging while big caps are still way up in the clouds .

That should be enough to drag the market down especially as we do the changeover from Aug to Sept {15 trading days )

Edited by tradesurfer, 20 August 2017 - 08:54 AM.

[pedro]

I wouldn't call whatever is directly ahead, a crash.

Like others, I still view the bull as very much alive.    Although on borrowed time.

In my view crashes occur after (a) an initial decline loses key LT support AND ({b} the market's attempt to regain the LT support fails.

We may be on the way to (a), but its not by any means certain and I'm inclined to believe we're not on that path quite yet.

SPX losing the 200dma (beyond a mere pin) would have me revisiting that point.

 

I do think when the market "loses it" it will be epic.   As prices aren't at all supported by real value.   Just central bank counterfeiting on the financial side that is creating the illusion of prosperity in the real world.   In fact, its doing precisely the opposite.

Edited by pedro, 20 August 2017 - 10:06 AM.

[SemiBizz]

 

 

 

DB is certainly not a proxy for the rest of the market.

 

OK, I can quote you.

 

 

Absolutely!  Since May 2007, DB down 89% and SPY up 59%.  The numbers speak for themselves.

 

 

It's the days ahead that matter most, not the past...