37 replies to this topic

[robo]

The divergence was clear that one should be careful holding long positions (no leverage) and not to be adding new stock market positions.

 

The IWM data indicated/warned that the SPX could be getting ready to move down several days before the drop happened. The divergence was very clear.

 

 

Good trading next week - Bulls and Bears!

Edited by robo, 20 August 2017 - 10:28 AM.

[robo]

I trade VXF at Vanguard free. Another warning signal on this chart...

 

[robo]

Stocks - IWM is down around (- 7%) so far and TNA around  (- 20%). 

VXF is down around (-5.5%)

 

The move down has taken IWM below the 200 DMA....

 

I only track indicators/indexes I use for my trading system. The divergence on the IWM chart was very clear that one should have at least reduce leverage if long the stock market once the divergence was clearly seen on the IWM chart. It's usually a pretty good warning signal that the SPX is due a ST move down.

 

Good trading next week...

 

Some advice from Baruch   that I have used for years:

 

Don’t buy too many different securities. Better have only a few investments which can be watched.

 

Always keep a good part of your capital in a cash reserve. Never invest all your funds.

 

Don’t try to be a jack of all investments. Stick to the field you know best.

 

• Baruch would often trade both sides of the market – long and short. “Having flexibility should not be underestimated.”

 

• About risk, he said: There is no investment which does not involve some risk and is not something of a gamble.” Moreover, “what we can try to do perhaps is to come to a better understanding of how to reduce the element of risk in whatever we undertake”.

 

• Baruch did not believe in diversification, but that it was “better to have a few stocks and to watch them carefully”.

 

• Baruch believed that you had to take responsibility for your decisions. “Do not blame anybody for your mistakes and failures.” In addition, he blamed most of his losses on the failure of judgment and taking time to think. “Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed in private and public life have been the consequence of action without thought.”

 

 

Edited by robo, 20 August 2017 - 10:37 AM.

[robo]

I also trade the gold miners...

[robo]

 

I have reduced on the way up and now only have a very small position of GDXJ based on (Gains Only) I call them free shares...

Edited by robo, 20 August 2017 - 10:43 AM.

[robo]

 

Have a nice day....

 

We shall see how things play out next week. Sorry, I don't know for sure.......

 

Jack:

 

http://www.gold-eagl...price-update-39

Edited by robo, 20 August 2017 - 10:47 AM.

[pisces]

 

 

 

 

DB is certainly not a proxy for the rest of the market.

 

OK, I can quote you.

 

 

Absolutely!  Since May 2007, DB down 89% and SPY up 59%.  The numbers speak for themselves.

 

 

It's the days ahead that matter most, not the past...

 

 

i respect a lot of individuals opinion here and that includes SemiBizz.

here is my WAG for the next 6 month or so , i think we are about half done with the decline . Crash - probably not , maybe a couple of scary downdays in sept , oct ,then up to new highs before another correction,  elliott speak , we are unwinding some 4,s and 5,s. and will not be done until we are done.   Good trading all. 

[CLK]

We can get a 20% 2-3 month correction, but I seriously doubt it without a good NYAD divergence.

Otherwise, this is the chart I go by to determine an impending bear market. The volume just isn't there

to indicate a turn, although by the time the monthly up volume prints, price can be down nearly 1900

already at the turn, worse case. I think we get a 5-10% vst correction and then a sideways channel

mostly for months.

 

 

 

 

Here is a 500 point chart for earlier warning.

 

Edited by CLK, 20 August 2017 - 05:55 PM.

[pisces]

TWT...

[NAV]

This market will crash only after all the bears on this board will turn bullish. And they will !