Jump to content



Photo

Hurricane Irma info ref Ft Lauderdale


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 stocks

stocks

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,552 posts

Posted 05 September 2017 - 06:05 PM

 
September 5, 2017 at 1:59 pm  from Ft Lauderdale

 

        PERSONAL

 

Laid in supplies today. Water and bread shelves at Publix Market were already stripped bare. No matter to us, our go bag has a case plus 5 days of freeze dried meals and a small camping stove and cookware. If we stay and are in the path, we fill all the large kithen pots for drinking plus the guest bedroom bathtub for flushing. Gas the cars tomorrow. Make decision on stay/go Thursday night or Friday morning after the cone of uncertainty narrows. We stay if we will experience Cat 2 or less. So far, not even taking the precaution of bringing in balcony stuff, always a pain physically and because clutters the condo inconveniently. No need to do so if less than TS winds expected. The building management will make that call probably Thursday for Friday. 

 

TRACK


Each successive ensemble has the track a bit more west before turning north. CFAN (Judy Curry’s company) has the adjusted track even a bit west of ECMWF, which has a better track record than GFS. So if that holds, we may experience nothing at all except rain from outermost bands. But Naples, Sarasota, Fort Meyers, Tampa look to be in real trouble on Irma’s dirty side if CFAN is correct. Current CFAN track has Irma then recurving and hitting Orlando as a Cat 1-2 then Daytona Beach as a 1. CFAN called Harvey perfectly.
Keys are going to get clobbered with high certainty. Mandatory evacuation starting 7 am for tourists and 7pm for residents tomorrow with schools closed from tomorrow until further noice. They have to move 80000 people up US 1 (only way out), always a mess. Miami (65 miles south of Ft Lauderdale) will likely have at least TS conditions given Irma’s size. The mayor is already urging people to evacuate known flood prone areas starting Thursday.

 

        BACKGROUND

 

the Saffir-Simpson scale was developed by US meteorologist Saffir in the 1960s based on ‘eyewall’ sustained 1 minute windspeed, then refined by US engineer Simpson in the 1970’s for 10 meter height (essentially three stories tall, the ~roofridge of most two story homes. The ratings are based on likely structural damage to ‘ordinary’ structures (think stick built homes) struck by the eye. A Cat 5 destroys these structures completely (google image Hurricane Andrew Homestead Florida damage for vivid examples). Hence there is no meaningful S-S Cat 6 except for scary PR purposes, no different than there is any tornado rated stronger than an Enhanced Fujita scale EF5 for the same reason. There is no meaningful damge number beyond total destruction. 

For what its worth, if a cat 1 is 1x wind energy, a Cat 2 is 10x, a Cat 3 is 50x, a Cat 4 is 250x, and a Cat 5 is >500x. Hence my Wilma Cat 3 survived/derived evacuation rule of thumb: cat 2 we stay as the building is designed for minimum Cat 5 (post Andrew building codes). Cat 3 up, we are outa here.   

 

 

The S-S definition is intentionally sustained winds just outside the eyewall, which is sometimes just 10 miles across.


--

--

 The federal government created fake Internet identities to flood social media with propaganda in support of, or against, various policies, media outlets, or individuals. Fake Internet identities are also created by hired consultants and political operatives

 

 


#2 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,271 posts

Posted 05 September 2017 - 06:34 PM

Just book into Mar-a-Lago.  Nothing named Irma is going to go near that p-grabber's club, although it would be rather karmic if she did.

 

But watch out for Jose.

 


Edited by diogenes227, 05 September 2017 - 06:41 PM.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#3 stocks

stocks

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,552 posts

Posted 09 September 2017 - 04:29 AM

 

 
September 5, 2017 at 1:59 pm  from Ft Lauderdale

 

        PERSONAL

 

Laid in supplies today. Water and bread shelves at Publix Market were already stripped bare. No matter to us, our go bag has a case plus 5 days of freeze dried meals and a small camping stove and cookware. If we stay and are in the path, we fill all the large kithen pots for drinking plus the guest bedroom bathtub for flushing. Gas the cars tomorrow. Make decision on stay/go Thursday night or Friday morning after the cone of uncertainty narrows. We stay if we will experience Cat 2 or less. So far, not even taking the precaution of bringing in balcony stuff, always a pain physically and because clutters the condo inconveniently. No need to do so if less than TS winds expected. The building management will make that call probably Thursday for Friday. 

 

TRACK


Each successive ensemble has the track a bit more west before turning north. CFAN (Judy Curry’s company) has the adjusted track even a bit west of ECMWF, which has a better track record than GFS. So if that holds, we may experience nothing at all except rain from outermost bands. But Naples, Sarasota, Fort Meyers, Tampa look to be in real trouble on Irma’s dirty side if CFAN is correct. Current CFAN track has Irma then recurving and hitting Orlando as a Cat 1-2 then Daytona Beach as a 1. CFAN called Harvey perfectly.
Keys are going to get clobbered with high certainty. Mandatory evacuation starting 7 am for tourists and 7pm for residents tomorrow with schools closed from tomorrow until further noice. They have to move 80000 people up US 1 (only way out), always a mess. Miami (65 miles south of Ft Lauderdale) will likely have at least TS conditions given Irma’s size. The mayor is already urging people to evacuate known flood prone areas starting Thursday.

 

        BACKGROUND

 

the Saffir-Simpson scale was developed by US meteorologist Saffir in the 1960s based on ‘eyewall’ sustained 1 minute windspeed, then refined by US engineer Simpson in the 1970’s for 10 meter height (essentially three stories tall, the ~roofridge of most two story homes. The ratings are based on likely structural damage to ‘ordinary’ structures (think stick built homes) struck by the eye. A Cat 5 destroys these structures completely (google image Hurricane Andrew Homestead Florida damage for vivid examples). Hence there is no meaningful S-S Cat 6 except for scary PR purposes, no different than there is any tornado rated stronger than an Enhanced Fujita scale EF5 for the same reason. There is no meaningful damge number beyond total destruction. 

For what its worth, if a cat 1 is 1x wind energy, a Cat 2 is 10x, a Cat 3 is 50x, a Cat 4 is 250x, and a Cat 5 is >500x. Hence my Wilma Cat 3 survived/derived evacuation rule of thumb: cat 2 we stay as the building is designed for minimum Cat 5 (post Andrew building codes). Cat 3 up, we are outa here.   

 

 

The S-S definition is intentionally sustained winds just outside the eyewall, which is sometimes just 10 miles across.

 

 

Staying in Ft Lauderdale 

 ristvan September 8, 2017 at 12:24 pm | Reply

Thanks Judy. Based on your earlier CFAN forecast from 9/6 (then fairly well echoed by NHC) as reported by the Fort Lauderdale Sun Sentinel, we decided to shelter in place right on the beach. Fully prepped except for water, which we will do before going to bed tonight. This post confirms that was a good decision given all the evacution chaos from Miami Dade. Your wind map says we won’t see anything beyond strong TS/ weak Cat 1. I will report ground truth over the next couple of days.
Naples and Fort Myers are going to get clobbered. 

 

Our electricity is all underground. Decent chance we will not lose power, as everything was significantly hardened in Fort Lauderdale and environs after a direct hit by Cat 3 Wilma in October 2005. New (operational last year) generating station (2200MW CCGT) down by the port. All the local high voltage feeds are underground now. Substations are supposedly hurricane proof. We will find out how good a job FPL did rebuilding after Wilma. Building has emergency generators for elevators, common areas, and security systems that get tested every other day for 1/2 hour. 

 https://judithcurry....a-eyes-florida/

 


--

--

 The federal government created fake Internet identities to flood social media with propaganda in support of, or against, various policies, media outlets, or individuals. Fake Internet identities are also created by hired consultants and political operatives

 

 


#4 stocks

stocks

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,552 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 08:06 AM

Final morning coffee report. Its over here. Sun is out. We survived. Never lost water or power. Elevators back on but rooftop AC chillers damaged and inoperable. Just got back from dog walk. Damage characteristic of cat 2. Some uprooted palms, some decapitated palms, many with broken fronds hanging down, shredded fronds strewn everywhere on the grounds. GumboLimbo trees by tennis courts completely denuded– not a leaf left. We will be cleaning up for quite a while. Both 12th floor balconies are strewn with litter (shredded frond bits mostly) and salt caked; we will clean them up later today. We consider ourselves lucky. 60% of all Florida without power according to local news.

 


--

--

 The federal government created fake Internet identities to flood social media with propaganda in support of, or against, various policies, media outlets, or individuals. Fake Internet identities are also created by hired consultants and political operatives

 

 


#5 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 24,430 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 03:01 PM

I'm glad that most took precautions, even though it was not as bad as it could have been. I think Houston may have saved lives by reminding  people of what hurricanes can do.

 

Note that "Historical" records only go back to mid 1800's

 

"Worst hurricane ever", tied for 7th place.

Hurricane_history.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 September 2017 - 03:07 PM.


#6 MaryAM

MaryAM

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,081 posts

Posted 11 September 2017 - 04:50 PM

ristvan September 11, 2017 at 8:43 am |

Final morning coffee report. Its over here. Sun is out. We survived. Never lost water or power. Elevators back on but rooftop AC chillers damaged and inoperable. Just got back from dog walk. Damage characteristic of cat 2. Some uprooted palms, some decapitated palms, many with broken fronds hanging down, shredded fronds strewn everywhere on the grounds. GumboLimbo trees by tennis courts completely denuded– not a leaf left. We will be cleaning up for quite a while. Both 12th floor balconies are strewn with litter (shredded frond bits mostly) and salt caked; we will clean them up later today. We consider ourselves lucky. 60% of all Florida without power according to local news.

.
Glad you are O K.
Mary