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emerging wave 3?


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#21 senorBS

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 01:47 PM

Welcome back to a bloodbath, Senor.

Dharma, nice observation about GLD, we'll see how inventory holds up with this drop.

gracias and glad I lightened up a lot before I left and only position was kldx, very tough call here but can't rule out a bearish resolution IT

 

did buy a little on this swoon but will exit quickly especially if we close very weak

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 20 September 2017 - 01:48 PM.


#22 dharma

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 01:57 PM

https://www.cnbc.com...-unchanged.html

when the fed starts to reduce its balance sheet by 50billion a month that imo will get miners moving.  

i dont see raising rates as bearish for gold, in fact i see it as admission by the fed that inflation is higher than fed rates. 

this will wear off in a day or two    hit 1295   wait for the whites in their eyes

welcome back hombre

equinox 22  i give this a day or two.   its setting up quite well. 

we now have hourly divergences in gld/slv/gdx/gdxj   waiting to see if it holds.  

scouring for ideas

dharma


Edited by dharma, 20 September 2017 - 02:02 PM.


#23 dougie

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 02:04 PM

Thanks dharma!
 
We are in a Wave 3 of C today, IMHO - so I am in accumulation mode - most (but not all) of the price damage has been done - the balance of this corrective (Waves 4 and 5 of C) will do more psychological damage to the bull case for the proper set-up to move higher.
 
In and around the 21st sounds about right to me - note the BOJ meets after the FED and before the open on Thursday the 21st, FWIW


Would that be the 21st or GDX 21

#24 senorBS

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 02:05 PM

https://www.cnbc.com...-unchanged.html

when the fed starts to reduce its balance sheet by 50billion a month that imo will get miners moving.  

i dont see raising rates as bearish for gold, in fact i see it as admission by the fed that inflation is higher than fed rates. 

this will wear off in a day or two    hit 1295   wait for the whites in their eyes

welcome back hombre

equinox 22  i give this a day or two.   its setting up quite well. 

we now have hourly divergences in gld/slv/gdx/gdxj   waiting to see if it holds.  

scouring for ideas

dharma

I "think" you are probably right, but this is still a area of price and time to have an exit point IMO - especially if one is more of a swing trader as I am, really critical juncture here IMO

 

Senor



#25 dougie

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 02:08 PM

Welcome back to a bloodbath, Senor.
Dharma, nice observation about GLD, we'll see how inventory holds up with this drop.

gracias and glad I lightened up a lot before I left and only position was kldx, very tough call here but can't rule out a bearish resolution IT
 
did buy a little on this swoon but will exit quickly especially if we close very weak
 
Senor

Bearish count when you have time?

#26 senorBS

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 02:44 PM

 

 

Welcome back to a bloodbath, Senor.
Dharma, nice observation about GLD, we'll see how inventory holds up with this drop.

gracias and glad I lightened up a lot before I left and only position was kldx, very tough call here but can't rule out a bearish resolution IT
 
did buy a little on this swoon but will exit quickly especially if we close very weak
 
Senor

Bearish count when you have time?

 

in gold or miner etf/index?



#27 dharma

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 02:49 PM

1285 is the 50% correction  we rallied from 1210 to 1360  in 2 months time  we have not yet corrected 50% of that move, this is a strong market, not a parabola.   if the 50% point holds it tells me that the market is firm.  the next wave up should be very robust.  we are in the strong part of the year w/diwali on october 19th. (modi has not lived up to what he was said to be, i dont see his positive influence on the indian economy)   make no mistake cbs are out there buying gold on a monthly basis . these trade wars are forcing countries to do so.  when mnuchin tells them they will be locked out of the swift system , what choice do they have?  

if you go back and look at the laws that were enacted in the late 1920s , it caused isolation and separation so strong areas of the world couldnt support the weak areas as normal trade does.  we are making the same mistakes again

the formula is currency wars  lead to trade wars lead to shooting wars.  i dont like this , but i have to accept this is where we are.  the positioning of n/korea sharing borders w/ s/korea , china , and that thin corridor w/russia.  make this of great concern.  

one other note.  it is said that n/korea has been using blockchain/bit coin to buy arms . china has outlawed them both. lets see if this becomes a move by govt world wide.  the noose gets tighter.   govts try to survive , no matter what . if you emulate them , then you have a good chance to survive. they hold gold  not silver , bit coin, block chain etc. they hold gold

they talk down gold , but they hold it they want us in fiat that they print and control . and there is china talking about a gold backed yuan as a currency

dharma. 


Edited by dharma, 20 September 2017 - 02:54 PM.


#28 dougie

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 02:55 PM

 

 

 

Welcome back to a bloodbath, Senor.
Dharma, nice observation about GLD, we'll see how inventory holds up with this drop.

gracias and glad I lightened up a lot before I left and only position was kldx, very tough call here but can't rule out a bearish resolution IT
 
did buy a little on this swoon but will exit quickly especially if we close very weak
 
Senor

Bearish count when you have time?

 

in gold or miner etf/index?

 

In GDX



#29 dougie

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 03:10 PM



#30 dougie

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 03:17 PM

or this