634 replies to this topic

[gannman]

dont think the bottom is in but gdx 20.5 to 21 looks in the cars to me fwiw

[Smithy]

Dharma, what can you tell us about Mercury retrogrades and gold turns? At beginning? end? both?

[jabat]

 

[dougie]

Saying is buy when blood is in the water I think?

[dougie]

Wonder what happened to Senor?

[dharma]

smithy ,  in my studies mercury , by itself retrograde  does not affect gold. gold is under the domain of jupiter.  that planet affects gold

we are presently setting up for a bottom, i see bottoming indications(of course they could be taken out , and then we start the bottoming process all over again) today gdx is now sporting hourly divergences  as is gdxj . gld has taken its divergences out as did slv.  so , miners lead up and they lead down, in essence they tend to lead the sector.  i see many miners w/daily divergences.  i believe there is a good chance we bottom w/in the next week.  i believe it will be a kickoff to the next leg up in the bull

we have

the debt ceiling, needs to be dealt w/

the fed on interest rates

the tax policy

now making the capital of israel jerusalem an issue w/iran and maybe the whole muslim world. why this was done is beyond me

and the loose canon in n/korea.  things are escalating on the korean peninsula there are war maneuvers taking place right now w/the s/koreans and usa fighter jets and B1 bombers.  rocket man keeps pressing the issue. and the usa has no choice but to listen.  when we dont things like 9/11 happen.  plus this could lead to a whole new wave of nuclear proliferation. not a pleasant thought

the world is becoming destabilized.  

i am slowly in add mode.  1250, 1245, 1229 are support. 1213 breaks into the previous cycle

dharma

[Russ]

interesting article looking at a cycle low around Dec. 13 when interest rates are likely to go up....     

  https://seekingalpha...b0a8b236cc&dr=1 Summary

I introduce a simple time-cycle analysis which has relevance to the historical value of GLD.

The raising of interest rates by the Fed corresponds to some of the time cycles.

I believe it is possible that another major low is on the horizon for GLD.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Commodity Conquest.

Next week, on Dec. 13, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the inter-bank lending rate by 0.25%. The last four interest rate increases were followed by significant moves in the value of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). Three of the four times, gold prices rose significantly, and one time, prices fell before pivoting sharply higher. Last June, I published an article that outlined my expectation that gold prices would fall following the June 2017 rate hike, which at the time was a minority view in the gold community.

 

 

https://seekingalpha...b0a8b236cc&dr=1

[dharma]

it looks to me like the miners could have put in a bottom, but the metals need more work to do , they have no divergences where the gdx/gdxj have hourly divergences. so what i look for is a bounce and then lower lows for the metals while the miners make higher lows, 

i look for the whole thing to be complete by the 13th, which russ just posted above.   

dharma

[Russ]

green oscillator shows money flow turning positive on the miners.... Carl Swenlin's gold chart below mine which as Dougie mentioned he thinks no support until 1200.

 

 

 

 

 

[Smithy]

Hey Senor, you think SIL is done? Looks that way to my untutored eye.