634 replies to this topic

[dharma]

i dont think this is the low for the metals , i think this rally fails lets some pressure off and then in elliott terms wave 5.  which should end next week, based on some cycles i am looking at.  we are now in the window for the lows to occur.   yesterday , the miners hit an extreme vs gold   i do think there is a really good possibility that the miners hit there lows yesterday.  but , they wont go very far until the metals bottom.  we are very close here in price and time. 

dharma

there are those in the gold community  who dont think the gold price is manipulated. they think the commercials ie the banksters are hedgers.  well even on a trade by trade basis the banksters can be found on the other side of the large specs. this has been going on for years. and for years it seems the large specs get the fuzzy end of the stick . once in a very big while (brexit comes to mind) the banksters are on the wrong side of the trade.  folks until the market becomes more physically oriented the paper market in new york and london will wag golds tail.    dont think the commercials manipulate. watch the cots closely. then tell us your discoveries.  i have for years. and they work closely w/the exchange members ( just ask the hunts) 

[dharma]

interesting chart 

https://www.tradingv...com/x/WBAbX9ZU/

dharma

this is what i was talking about above todays cot

http://news.goldseek.../1512765091.php

Edited by dharma, 08 December 2017 - 03:50 PM.

[Russ]

Martin Weiss is showing cyclical projections for the low in late Dec. Dharma, and Fib also gave the same prediction a few weeks ago. I can see arguments that we have already bottomed but it could go down more for a week or two. Weiss thinks this will be the major low before gold surges to 5000 dollars.

 

Weiss's chart.... 

Edited by Russ, 08 December 2017 - 04:15 PM.

[dougie]

1-2 1-2 HUI?

[Smithy]

Last week I reported how the commercials piled on the shorts so heavily there was a momentum issue which would cause the gold price to drop and drop it did. Now the numbers reveal they took profits so hard and fast their net short position dropped by a staggering 35,000 contracts giving a momentum buy signal. Conversely, the small specs have turned bearish and as we know, are usually wrong.

 

Overall gold  futures OI has dropped to 472,795 which is at acceptable buy levels; it tends to be a sentiment indicator, showing how the hot money has moved away from gold to other markets. The OI has dropped by a huge -11.4% in 2 weeks. Big moves in OI are often but not always associated with a change in gold's trend.

 

In silver the commies also made a killing. Their net bullish % position has jumped this week from 29% to 36%; we haven't seen them make that big a jump to the bullish cause in a long time.

 

Where gold's OI dropped a lot, silver rose slightly. There appears to be a group of strong hands in silver holding on to a long position and biding their time. This is revealed by the OI trending upwards since 2008 pretty much regardless of price drops. It is easy to imagine that they will get their reward sooner or later.

 

In conclusion last weeks outright bearish indications have dissipated and the tide has turned slightly bullish, but not enough enough to say further drops are out of question. My own bullish inclinations are tempered by the triangle on the weekly gold chart that projects a target of around 1215. Must that target be fulfilled? That's the burning question.

[Russ]

Thanks for that info Smithy,  here's a picture of it all.... 

[dharma]

keep in mind the cots are up till last tuesday, wednesday and thursday saw more smash and commercials covered even more short positions. 

the fed meeting imo will mark the low. i am more than curious what will happen w/the debt ceiling.  i believe the hike is already in the gold market.  what gets me is volcker hiked and hiked and gold went up and up.  i suspect that will be in the cards again. it looks to me like the sector is washing out. and it will start all over again ,w/the market being held in stronger hands.  i have saved a good bit of fire power should there be a final washout

dharma

[senorBS]

added some GG into new lows barely below Dec 2016 bottom - think we are ending a large correction from July 2016 high, added Nem below 34.85, now 60% long and holding. Like the silver stock action a lot today, I own SIL, SILJ, CDE and FSM in that area. Nice 12 hr RSI divergence into this current gold new decline low, no new low "so far" in GDX/GDXJ and others. as always DYODD

 

Senor

[dharma]

jim rogers-The economic system which has evolved in the world especially in the US but not just the US cannot be sustained because it is built on staggering amounts of debt. The United States is now the largest debtor nation not just in the world but in the history of the world. No country has ever gotten so deep in debt and the debt goes higher and higher every day. 

Nobody's doing anything about it except some worrying like me or worry knowing it cannot go on and not only is it based on lots of debt but to sustain the debt or to maintain it they now print a lot of money. The central bank in America gets out its printing presses, prints a lot of money and uses that to finance the debt going forward so this cannot last forever. I'm afraid it's not gonna last too much longer because we're getting to the end of the road.

dharma       we are within days of the low, i suspect the fed marks the bottom

[senorBS]

Hey Senor, you think SIL is done? Looks that way to my untutored eye.

Sil's and Silj's .618's were at 30 and 10 respectively. We had two closes in both ETF's just below those levels on Thurs and Fri last week and with today's closes back above those key levels, I can make a solid case those were possible important downside completion patterns and daily and weekly RSI hit levels last week seen at previous key lows. Note these lows are also just below the Dec 2016 lows allowing for completion of the correction of the entire huge rally leg in the first half of 2016. I like what I see developing but who knows, as always DYODD

 

Senor