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emerging wave 3?


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#611 dharma

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 03:07 PM

 

this rally we had after fed meeting is not looking so impressive anymore. there should have been immediate and unrelenting follow through, instead it looks like we are going to get a lump of coal for xmas while everyone else will be getting 1000 iphones and 20,000bitcoins.

 

the fed meeting rally must have been short term short covering.

 

i guess to get everyone in the gold market the most bearish we need to take out the december 2016 low in the HUI of 160....go slightly under there and then reverse hard up and fast to new highs.

 

in some sense however that seems too predicable because it is the same thing that happened at the end of 2015.

 

in the first half of January 2015 the gold miners plunged fast in capitulation, but why ????? at that time the sp500 was in a very bearish selloff as well...  and what sucks now is that the US Stock market is at very high risk of some type of nasty pullback but it probably wont happen until very close to end of year... so it would seem the stock market may pull the miners down again into early january for similar setup.

I like the look and structure of the rally, frankly for me I could not ask for more, I guess we all look at different things different ways. I don't expect a launch this time of year, frankly would prefer a solid and stead up move into tr end which I think is what we will likely get, we see

 

Senor

 

i agree w/senor. i have seen the last quarter post weak demand from china/india. and then as a result the commercials leaned on the market and it gave way. i expect todays cots to show even more improvement . we are coming into chinese buying season for the new year. i look for a strong january. this interview is well worth the listen. http://www.kitco.com...-Ideal---Part-1

dharma   we have either finished or are still in wave 1 i dont see this as a strong position for a rocket. later on it will occur. after all in the big picture this should be wave 2-recognition,, which i think comes in at or near the highs of 11



#612 Russ

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 03:37 PM

Here's one person's optimistic view of next week from https://www.investin...gold-commentary;)....  tvc_c0cb4b2c179325a5a7d88a6a551751f2.png


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#613 dharma

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 03:54 PM

this is better than i had  expected.  the commercials detected weak physical demand so they pounced , now the large specs capitulated so the commercials covered alot of shorts and added to their long positions. even silver improved dramatically . this is very encouraging to the bullish case

http://news.goldseek.../1513369942.php

 

dharma



#614 Russ

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 04:17 PM

Hadik's latest promo.... == Gold Stocks Trigger Dec. 12 Buy Signal ==

 
Fulfill 2 - 3 Month & 6 - 12 Month Downside Objectives!
Early-Feb. ’17 & Early-Sept. ‘17 Analysis Fulfilled.
 
Dec. 12 Divergence Projects Quick Surge…
Dec. 13 Surge Validates that Analysis.
Dec. 15 - 29 Action Could Spur Sharp Rally in January!
 
The Dec. 12, 2017 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update explained how a key divergence was projecting a quick, 1 - 2 week rally in the XAU.  On Dec. 13, that rally took hold!
 This came after the late-Nov. & early-Dec. Weekly Re-Lays focused on a unique convergence of weekly & monthly cycles, weekly HLS triggers, daily trend pattern signals, intra-year downside objectives & related weekly trend signals all projecting a multi-month bottom for Dec. 4 - 15
The Dec. 13 Alert updated that analysis and the attached Dec. 14 Alert elaborated on it - and on the developing buy signal in the XAU.  The Dec. 16 Weekly Re-Lay will update that.
If certain criteria are met in the next 2 - 3 weeks, it would project the sharpest advance in nearly a year.  But, those criteria MUST be met!
In early-Feb., the Weekly Re-Lay described in great detail how Gold Stocks (XAU & HUI Indexes) had reached the convergence of multiple cycles while testing important resistance and setting the stage for an ultimate drop back toward the lows.  New intra-year lows were projected & related analysis focused on Nov./Dec. 2017 as the most likely time for a multi-month, intra-year bottom.
That set the stage for a sideways year in which Gold stocks set their intra-year high in early-Feb. and were expected to wait until late-year to set a corresponding low.  In early-Sept., analysis forecast a similar top and sharp decline to follow, increasing the likelihood for an overall decline into Nov./Dec. 2017:
That quickly began to unfold.  In recent weeks, Gold & Silver revealed new weakness that coincided with projections for the XAU to trade lower into late-2017 and to bottom before mid-Dec.…
With Gold stocks fulfilling so much of these outlooks (2 - 4 week, 1 - 3 month, 3 - 6 month & 6 - 12 month), the time for a reversal higher arrived.  And, it could turn out to be much more than just a routine rally!  The next 2 - 3 weeks should reveal a lot about what is possible in the XAU in 2018.  That includes analysis for the next significant peak to wait until 3Q 2018.
As a thank you for your previous involvement in our services, we have attached a complimentary copy of today’s Dec. 14, 2017 Weekly Re-Lay Alert.  If you are interested in subscribing to any of our publications and want to read Eric’s latest analysis on Gold, Silver & the XAU, you can do so at www.insiidetrack.com/subscribe.
Thank you for your interest in our services.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#615 senorBS

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 07:00 PM

 

Hadik's latest promo.... == Gold Stocks Trigger Dec. 12 Buy Signal ==

 
Fulfill 2 - 3 Month & 6 - 12 Month Downside Objectives!
Early-Feb. ’17 & Early-Sept. ‘17 Analysis Fulfilled.
 
Dec. 12 Divergence Projects Quick Surge…
Dec. 13 Surge Validates that Analysis.
Dec. 15 - 29 Action Could Spur Sharp Rally in January!
 
The Dec. 12, 2017 INSIIDE Track Intra-month Update explained how a key divergence was projecting a quick, 1 - 2 week rally in the XAU.  On Dec. 13, that rally took hold!
 This came after the late-Nov. & early-Dec. Weekly Re-Lays focused on a unique convergence of weekly & monthly cycles, weekly HLS triggers, daily trend pattern signals, intra-year downside objectives & related weekly trend signals all projecting a multi-month bottom for Dec. 4 - 15
The Dec. 13 Alert updated that analysis and the attached Dec. 14 Alert elaborated on it - and on the developing buy signal in the XAU.  The Dec. 16 Weekly Re-Lay will update that.
If certain criteria are met in the next 2 - 3 weeks, it would project the sharpest advance in nearly a year.  But, those criteria MUST be met!
In early-Feb., the Weekly Re-Lay described in great detail how Gold Stocks (XAU & HUI Indexes) had reached the convergence of multiple cycles while testing important resistance and setting the stage for an ultimate drop back toward the lows.  New intra-year lows were projected & related analysis focused on Nov./Dec. 2017 as the most likely time for a multi-month, intra-year bottom.
That set the stage for a sideways year in which Gold stocks set their intra-year high in early-Feb. and were expected to wait until late-year to set a corresponding low.  In early-Sept., analysis forecast a similar top and sharp decline to follow, increasing the likelihood for an overall decline into Nov./Dec. 2017:
That quickly began to unfold.  In recent weeks, Gold & Silver revealed new weakness that coincided with projections for the XAU to trade lower into late-2017 and to bottom before mid-Dec.…
With Gold stocks fulfilling so much of these outlooks (2 - 4 week, 1 - 3 month, 3 - 6 month & 6 - 12 month), the time for a reversal higher arrived.  And, it could turn out to be much more than just a routine rally!  The next 2 - 3 weeks should reveal a lot about what is possible in the XAU in 2018.  That includes analysis for the next significant peak to wait until 3Q 2018.
As a thank you for your previous involvement in our services, we have attached a complimentary copy of today’s Dec. 14, 2017 Weekly Re-Lay Alert.  If you are interested in subscribing to any of our publications and want to read Eric’s latest analysis on Gold, Silver & the XAU, you can do so at www.insiidetrack.com/subscribe.
Thank you for your interest in our services.

 

nice analysis but nothin we don't already know

 

Senor



#616 senorBS

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 07:02 PM

this is better than i had  expected.  the commercials detected weak physical demand so they pounced , now the large specs capitulated so the commercials covered alot of shorts and added to their long positions. even silver improved dramatically . this is very encouraging to the bullish case

http://news.goldseek.../1513369942.php

 

dharma

another piece of the puzzle falls into place......yes.gif



#617 Smithy

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 09:41 PM

This week's COT report reinforces dharma's remarks. In both gold and silver it is a full on buy signal.



#618 Smithy

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 10:35 PM

Twiggy Fri 12/15

 

The greenback continues its bear market rally, assisted by the new tax bill and the December Fed rate hike. Breakout above resistance at 95 would signal a primary up-trend, a strong bear signal for gold, but the Dollar still has to overcome concerns over North Korea.

 

Gold found short-term support at $1240/ounce and recovery above the descending trendline would indicate that the down-trend is weakening. Breach of primary support at $1200 is unlikely but would be a strong bear signal, warn of a primary down-trend.



#619 Russ

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 01:44 AM

for da bears.... clearly 5 waves down since sept. high, and the formation of a bull flag with cci and bollinger bands looking ready to move up, also important is the blue line on the bottom of the price chart of the xau, that line was the low back in 2000, these metal stocks are extremely unlikely to go and take those levels out, the all time lows going back decades.

 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#620 dharma

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Posted 16 December 2017 - 12:03 PM

guys it is a long road , this bear of 11-17, w/a wave one in early 16 -august 16, but i believe the time is changing  this winter solstice is very interesting major planet shifts right on the solstice.  i believe we begin to see price appreciation in 18 in a significant way. i had posted charts of gold/vs miners going back to the early 90s where in 96 to the present time  miners began losing ground to gold and have continued to do so. i think the rubber band has been stretched and the now the snap back begins. i saw in the 70s the metrics changed on how to value miners , that process is about to begin again. 

it is also process of putting the infrastructure in place to support a bull. the brics have been hard at work getting that to happen. along w/dubai and their quattro gold exchange along w/shanghai.  its about to begin. sure there should be skepticism that is what the last years are about creating doubt. it will take 1924 to be in the rear view mirror for recognition.  my work shows, fwiw the next 4 years we see a big shift towards real money.  its going to be slow at first but it will gain momo until folks begin to seek protection from owning fiat

dharma


Edited by dharma, 16 December 2017 - 12:05 PM.