12 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Long term/IT/Short term/VST - uptrend

Swing pivots intact

Moving averages configuration positive for both VST and ST

Breadth positive

Daily - no momentum divergences yet

Market profile - still positive for the swing

Opex week - positive bias

 

The only VST negative i see is that the hourly is diverging which means a minor pullback. But until Daily is positive this will result only in a minor pullback of 10-15 points max.

 

Unless you are scalper, who is nimble and looking for quick buck, shorting is going to be tough here.

 

I am holding my partial longs from 2467.

Edited by NAV, 14 September 2017 - 09:55 AM.

[NAV]

My trailing STOP has now moved to SPX 2494.8.

 

28 SPX points in profits locked !

Edited by NAV, 14 September 2017 - 10:54 AM.

[NAV]

Exited the rest of my position at 2496 for 29 points. My hourly is signalling weakness ahead. 

 

 

 

Someone popping in once a month and simply saying short the rally's or vise/versa does not compare with putting it out there with exact numbers does it? 

 

 

 

Those entries,stops and exits/partial exits in real-time were exact numbers i suppose ? 

 

That's 29 SPX points profits in this week's longs, 22 points profits in last week's short, and a 7 point loss the week prior to that. The average is a bit less as i take partial profits for 10-15 points.

 

Anyway 3 weeks do not mean much. But to those who forget that i have hundreds of real-time trades, which i posted for years, are still in TT archives. Back then i used to post these trades to show that market analysis is not an end in itself, but a means to trade and make money. It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing. My favorite line then used to be "Even my 5-year-old son can tell what the market trend is". That 5-year-old is now 16 years old. Time flies eh ?

Edited by NAV, 14 September 2017 - 02:50 PM.

[12SPX]

Nice, great example of what this site is supposed to be,,,,calling trades, right or wrong!  Thanks for your input!!  Our kids are the same age mines 17 now, time does fly!!

[NAV]

Our kids are the same age mines 17 now, time does fly!!

 

Time to pay ransom to the biggest racket in America - American universities ! 

[CLK]

Would it be possible to go broke, trading the hourly chop in June getting repeatedly stopped out ?

 

I see the value in price following until we run into a month or two of chop, then I see no way not to lose.

[NAV]

Would it be possible to go broke, trading the hourly chop in June getting repeatedly stopped out ?

 

I see the value in price following until we run into a month or two of chop, then I see no way not to lose.

 

How can anybody who follows proper money management go broke in a month ? Yes, you can have one or two bad months in a year when the prices get too choppy. If somebody goes broke in a month, they are not traders but riverboat gamblers leveraging up and getting a high. These kind of individuals are a financial threat to their families and their families should confiscate their laptops/tablets/phone and restrain them from their gambling addictions.

 

There's a big difference between trading and gambling - in one word money management a.k.a sizing.

[CLK]

Well, going broke may have been extreme but one has to use a decent amount of leverage if they plan on 

making much of anything in a 5-10 year time frame. I mean, a 125K account is only about 500 SPY and going by the

2% position plan is only 10 shares per trade. Most people are not going to have even 125K to trade with outside a 401k or

something anyway. I think options will work but if you do a stop and reverse and then another whipsaw right after then that 

would be at least a 50% loss or more on the position. In the past I used to buy a bunch of cheaper just out of the money

in the direction of what appeared to be a turn and buy a fraction of that in the money the other way as a hedge and try to 

hold through any immediate single or double whipsaw which worked better unless the market stalled in a narrow sideways

range for a week or more. And if it went the wrong way I didn't make anything or took a small loss but better than a 50%+ loss.

But yes, I know what you are saying about position sizing, it's much safer to just use the same amount per trade, but I think

compounding that plus half the gains from each trade could work also.

[NAV]

Well, going broke may have been extreme but one has to use a decent amount of leverage if they plan on 

making much of anything in a 5-10 year time frame. I mean, a 125K account is only about 500 SPY and going by the

2% position plan is only 10 shares per trade. Most people are not going to have even 125K to trade with outside a 401k or

something anyway. I think options will work but if you do a stop and reverse and then another whipsaw right after then that 

would be at least a 50% loss or more on the position. In the past I used to buy a bunch of cheaper just out of the money

in the direction of what appeared to be a turn and buy a fraction of that in the money the other way as a hedge and try to 

hold through any immediate single or double whipsaw which worked better unless the market stalled in a narrow sideways

range for a week or more. And if it went the wrong way I didn't make anything or took a small loss but better than a 50%+ loss.

But yes, I know what you are saying about position sizing, it's much safer to just use the same amount per trade, but I think

compounding that plus half the gains from each trade could work also.

 

I can't speak for others. But my max leverage is 2x. I trade not more than 6-8 trades a month on the SPX 2X ETFs. Even if i get 6 consecutive losses, given my STOP size of 6-8 points, my max loss would be around 40 points. That's about 1.5% loss on my entire account. With 2X leverage, it comes to about 3%.

 

Now i am a conservative trader. The more aggressive types might trade 5X leverage with futures or options. I used to do that a few years back. But even then it would be about 8% loss, which is not catastrophic. Anybody trading beyond 5X leverage are walking on thin ice. They are bound to blow up their accounts sooner or later. 

 

I usually get about 2-3 lousy months in a year, which end up in small losses, 2-3 months which are wildly profitable where i make most of my money and the rest are moderately profitable or breakeven kind of months. Those who look for profits every day and every month will get frustrated in this business. One has to cultivate a lot of patience and mental game to be in this business. Technical analysis alone is not sufficient. I am typing all this cuz you painted a bleak picture of trading, which it is not. 

 

P.S - Options is the worst instrument to trade on this planet IMO, if you are a directional trader.

[12SPX]

 

Well, going broke may have been extreme but one has to use a decent amount of leverage if they plan on 

making much of anything in a 5-10 year time frame. I mean, a 125K account is only about 500 SPY and going by the

2% position plan is only 10 shares per trade. Most people are not going to have even 125K to trade with outside a 401k or

something anyway. I think options will work but if you do a stop and reverse and then another whipsaw right after then that 

would be at least a 50% loss or more on the position. In the past I used to buy a bunch of cheaper just out of the money

in the direction of what appeared to be a turn and buy a fraction of that in the money the other way as a hedge and try to 

hold through any immediate single or double whipsaw which worked better unless the market stalled in a narrow sideways

range for a week or more. And if it went the wrong way I didn't make anything or took a small loss but better than a 50%+ loss.

But yes, I know what you are saying about position sizing, it's much safer to just use the same amount per trade, but I think

compounding that plus half the gains from each trade could work also.

 

I can't speak for others. But my max leverage is 2x. I trade not more than 6-8 trades a month on the SPX 2X ETFs. Even if i get 6 consecutive losses, given my STOP size of 6-8 points, my max loss would be around 40 points. That's about 1.5% loss on my entire account. With 2X leverage, it comes to about 3%.

 

Now i am a conservative trader. The more aggressive types might trade 5X leverage with futures or options. I used to do that a few years back. But even then it would be about 8% loss, which is not catastrophic. Anybody trading beyond 5X leverage are walking on thin ice. They are bound to blow up their accounts sooner or later. 

 

I usually get about 2-3 lousy months in a year, which end up in small losses, 2-3 months which are wildly profitable where i make most of my money and the rest are moderately profitable or breakeven kind of months. Those who look for profits every day and every month will get frustrated in this business. One has to cultivate a lot of patience and mental game to be in this business. Technical analysis alone is not sufficient. I am typing all this cuz you painted a bleak picture of trading, which it is not. 

 

P.S - Options is the worst instrument to trade on this planet IMO, if you are a directional trader.

 

But best if your an option seller lol!!