3 replies to this topic

[blustar]

Some odds things have happened.  The normal Sol/Sat turn date of 9-13 turned out to be a non-event (extremely odd as it is usually punctual or comes a day earlier).  These turn dates usually alternate 2 tops and 2 bottoms, so I was expecting a top on Sept 12-13 (the normal 32/33 TD cycle top).  Now it looks as though it is coming 3 TD's late! We might explain this by the Grand Trine of Venus with Saturn on the evening of Sept 12 and with Uranus on Sunday evening the 17th, which is predicting a top within the time frame band of Sept 12-18.

 

The rare 22 TD cycle top (previously March 1 and June 19) usually has a 16 TD top 6 TD's before it, which was a low instead this time: 9/8, a Bradley turn and perhaps the 3 week low that melds with the coming and expected low on Sept 29.  The previous top was Sept 1 which precedes this top by 10 TD's.

 

Now Sept 1 can fit as a 16 TD top minus 4 TD's which makes the next one due on Sept 26, 6 TD's from Monday's expected top. This makes me believe we repeat what we saw from August 8-18 in abc fashion from Sept 18-29 building a right shoulder H&S top into early mid October (around Oct 12). The 16 TD low was due on Wednesday this week and basically became non-existent (or came on TD 13 Sept 8).

 

The MACD 30, min, 60 min and 120 min are all on sell signals (the 30 and 60 min for a while now).  Basically, this market has been correcting internally in a sideways bull flag (hence the coming and expected last gap pop on the upside Monday possibly to as high as 2513/15)

 

It looks as though the 6 week cycle top is dominating here minus 2 TD & 1 calendar day (Aug 8- Sept 18 and Aug 18 to Sept 29 = 28 TD's).  Seasonally, we are entering a very weak period after OPEX into Sept 29.
 

There is an old adage: sell Rosh Hashana (Sept 20, 2017) buy Yom Kippur (Sept 29, 2017).  I've known this since the 1980's, but it has not always worked: same with the so called January Effect, Santa Claus Rally and "sell in May go away". On average though, statistics reflect about a 1.43% decline during the Jewish High Holidays over the past 17 years.  The end of Sept seems to work best after OPEX as it tends to be seasonally week after that and that is where we are.HMMM.
 

All things being equal with the last drop (Aug 8-18), we might expect another 2.5% a-b-c decline just ahead.
 

Edited by blustar, 15 September 2017 - 12:00 PM.

[blustar]

Recent calculations suggests a move to the 2508/09 area Monday and then down to 2455/56 by Wed. I expect a big move up in volatility just like Aug 8-10/11.
 

[cycletimer]

FWIW, The only two dates on my cycle radar are Sept. 18 and Sept 27, followed by Oct 13.

[redfoliage2]

 

There is an old adage: sell Rosh Hashana (Sept 20, 2017) buy Yom Kippur (Sept 29, 2017).  I've known this since the 1980's, but it has not always worked"
 

 

The market has been set up perfectly for it to happen this time..................