It's time for another seasonal forecast update. The chart below shows the SPX performance YTD (yellow line) compared to two seasonal forecasts. As you can see, the SPX continues to track the blue forecast remarkably well. In my last update, the blue forecast was calling for a seasonal correction in early to mid August. We did indeed get an A-B-C correction in that time frame, which bottomed almost exactly on schedule. The forecast also called for a strong rally from the mid August low. That rally did indeed materialize and is progressing toward a forecast top in early October.
As of Friday's close, the SPX is within 0.3% of the blue forecast line. I have been doing these seasonal forecasts for 10 years, and the correlation between 2017 actual performance and forecast is the best I have ever seen. Of course, by saying that, I have probably jinxed it! 
As always, never rely on a single forecast/indicator. Do your own analysis to corroborate this work.
