Here are the key items noted during this weekend's review.
DeMark TD Sequential and TD Combination Sell signals printed in the $NDX.X daily chart on 9/1 and 9/11 respectively. The TD Sequential is on a 11 of 13 of a countdown sell signal in the NDX weekly chart and a 13 sell signal can print below a high. A rare print of the generally reliable TD Analog printed a high peak last month on the NDX monthly chart. A Hurst cycle analysis using the nominal model points to a secondary high Sept 15-23 in the NDX and then another in May 2018 before the start of a multi-year decline, but the data set only goes back to 1971. Thus the DeMark signals are likely for either the top of a minor Wave 3, with 4 and 5 ahead or minor wave 5 with A and B ahead, with B challenging or exceeding the recent highs next year. In any event, it is doubtful per Hurst, Demark and Elliott that we'll see much more upward progress in the NDX with a decline and then up as the more likely scenario and months of hard to trade chop ahead.
The daily Compx had DeMark TD Sequential Sell and TD Combination sell signals on 9/11 and 8/31 respectively, but it may still be tracing out the final subwaves of a Minor wave 5 or Minute wave b (circle) of Minor wave 4. A Hurst Analysis of the $Compx suggests immediate downward movement which is remarkable given that an 18 month trough likely occurred in August . This suggests that some very long term waves have peaked. The Kondratieff Wave is likely on a downward path with it's greatest acceleration toward a 2030's bottom from it's 1876-1932 -1982 lows .
A Hurst analysis of the SPX and Dow with longer data series are pointing to more up into the 4th quarter and into 2018. DeMark daily, weekly and monthly trend exhaustion indicators are not inconsistent with this view, with their counts in most time frames months and weeks from completion. The Dow Daily chart did print a TD Combination 13 sell signal, and a TD Analog high on Friday, so expect some weakness there early in the week and a retest of the Aug 8 high.
In both the Dow and the SPX minor wave 4 could be complete and they could be in the early stages of minute wave 3 of minor wave 5. Both would have to turn here (next week) and decline in a c wave in order to void that minor wave 5 count. A Hurst analysis of each points to immediate upward movement into late Sept early October, and then a brief decline which would be consistent with them being in minute 3 of minor wave 5 . Hurst projections of their tops generally coincide with the projected secondary highs in the NDX and the Compx in 2018, but this particular projection tool in back testing is better at short term inflection points and has a very poor (16%) record of calling multiyear tops ( although it called the 2007 high) in tests going back to 1929. .
The Russell Hurst using two different start dates (1987 and 1998) suggests more up into mid October to challenge or exceed it's ATH which would be consistent with the TD Combination count in the monthly which is on an 8 of countdown, although there may be some weakness this week. If the $RUT 1452 July top is exceeded, price projections would then cluster significant resistance around 1560-1594.
Note to self: Given such a very mixed overall picture, watch the trend tools, be on guard for major indices and sectors topping at different times and beware of a potential for months of hard to trade choppy market behavior.