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US Stock Indices weekend review

DeMark Hurst Elliott Wave

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#1 Geomean

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Posted 16 September 2017 - 06:42 PM

Here are the key items noted during this weekend's review.

 

DeMark TD Sequential™ and TD Combination™ Sell signals printed in the $NDX.X daily chart on 9/1 and 9/11 respectively.  The TD Sequential™ is on a 11 of 13 of a countdown sell signal in the NDX weekly chart and a 13 sell signal can print below a high.  A rare print of the generally reliable TD Analog™ printed a high peak last month on the NDX monthly chart.  A Hurst cycle analysis using the nominal model points to a secondary high Sept 15-23 in the NDX and then another in May 2018 before the start of a multi-year decline, but the data set only goes back to 1971. Thus the DeMark signals are likely for either the top of a minor Wave 3, with 4 and 5 ahead or minor wave 5 with A and B ahead, with B challenging or exceeding the recent highs next year.  In any event, it is doubtful per Hurst, Demark and Elliott that we'll see much more upward progress in the NDX with a decline and then up as the more likely scenario and months of hard to trade chop ahead.

 

The daily Compx had DeMark TD Sequential™ Sell and TD Combination™ sell signals on 9/11 and 8/31 respectively, but it may still be tracing out the final subwaves of a Minor wave 5 or Minute wave b (circle) of Minor wave 4.  A Hurst Analysis of the $Compx suggests immediate downward movement which is remarkable given that an 18 month trough likely occurred in August .  This suggests that some very long term waves have peaked.  The Kondratieff Wave is likely on a downward path with it's greatest acceleration toward a 2030's bottom from it's 1876-1932 -1982 lows .

 

A Hurst analysis of the SPX and Dow with longer data series are pointing to more up into the 4th quarter and into 2018.  DeMark daily, weekly and monthly trend exhaustion indicators are not inconsistent with this view, with their counts in most time frames months and weeks from completion.  The Dow Daily chart did print a TD Combination™ 13 sell signal, and a TD Analog high on Friday, so expect some weakness there early in the week and a retest of the Aug 8 high.  

 

In both the Dow and the SPX minor wave 4 could be complete and they could be in the early stages of minute wave 3 of minor wave 5.  Both would have to turn here (next week) and decline in a c wave in order to void that minor wave 5 count.  A Hurst analysis of each points to immediate upward movement into late Sept early October, and then a brief decline which would be consistent with them being in minute 3 of minor wave 5 .  Hurst projections of their tops generally coincide with the projected secondary highs in the NDX and the Compx in 2018, but this particular projection tool in back testing is better at short term inflection points and has a very poor (16%) record of calling multiyear tops ( although it called the 2007 high) in tests going back to 1929.pop.gif . 

 

The Russell Hurst using two different start dates (1987 and 1998) suggests more up into mid October to challenge or exceed it's ATH which would be consistent with the TD Combination count in the monthly which is on an 8 of countdown,  although there may be some weakness this week.   If the $RUT 1452 July top is exceeded, price projections would then cluster significant resistance around 1560-1594.

 

Note to self: Given such a very mixed overall picture, watch the trend tools, be on guard for major indices and sectors topping at different times and beware of a potential for months of hard to trade choppy market behavior.

 

 

 


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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 04:55 AM

wow......history on all those so called indicators hasnt slowed this market down one bit dont you think?    



#3 risk_management

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 01:47 PM

Interesting that you bring DeMark.  I subscribe to his youtube updates but they come once a year nowadays.  He is looking for exhaustion in this uptrend around this Monday.



#4 dowdeva

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 07:54 PM

Geo, you say that Hurst analysis points to another high in May of next year.  What cycle length  are you using for your nominal model and what is showing as the actual length?

 

Also, what do you have as your last 40 and 80 week lows, may I ask, and are you using trading or calendar days?

 

TIA, and as usual, much thanks for your detailed and comprehensive market analysis. Elliot Wave international as this as a completed wave five on some indices, and almost completed on others, or 4 as almost completed. They do have alternate counts, though.

 

~D



#5 da_cheif

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 08:05 PM

robert precter was interviewed buy barrons in 1994 with the dow at 3500.....in the interview and i parapjhrase  "  If the dow ever exceeded 4000 it would prove that i didnt know what i was talking about ...and therefore no one should ever listen to me again."      lets put an end to any reference  to EWT eh



#6 Geomean

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 08:38 AM

I use calendar days, peaks and troughs and for the Dow the actual average recent cycle lengths for the lows using a data set starting at May 2 1921 are 19.2 &11.7 years, 74.6 & 24.3, months, 40.5 and 20.8 weeks and 72,0, 40.8, 21.0 and 10.8 calendar days.  The sum of the longer cycles is a sigma calculation.  Using the same data set for highs is 17.4 and 8.7 years, 51 and 18.2 months, 48.4 and 30.4 weeks, and 80.5, 38.8, 18.7 and 9.2 calendar days. The last 80 day low was in late June and the last 40 day low was August 9-10.  For the highs it is not clear yet.  The window for the next 40 day high is mid October.  We probably saw the cluster with the 20 week lows last week or the week prior.

 

The last 80 and 40 day lows in the COMPX for example were the August lows and the actual average cycle lengths for the lows are 72.5 and 38.8 calendar days.  The last 40 and 80 day highs are not clear, but are either of the highs in July and the average cycle lengths for the highs are 103.8 and 48.8 calendar days.  I use the composite model line for specific turn date projections, and it constantly changes given price action and the phasing of the actual cycle turns.


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#7 Geomean

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 09:01 AM

Interesting that you bring DeMark.  I subscribe to his youtube updates but they come once a year nowadays.  He is looking for exhaustion in this uptrend around this Monday.

I purchased Tom's software back when Tom also had a scanning service that I subscribed to.  It was awesome, for example, in July 2002.  It was discontinued years ago.  I then made code for scanning tools and other enhancements.  

 

Over the years I found it most helpful to pair the TD Sequential™ and the TD Combination™ with Elliott Wave analysis and Hurst so that the exhaustion areas being indicated by DeMark's tools can be placed in a larger overall context.  How and when to use the three approaches together is a fascinating topic and only a few people have that experience. For example, rarely take a TD Sequential™ without a concurrent EWT count appearing to be complete.


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#8 blustar

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 03:03 PM

robert precter was interviewed buy barrons in 1994 with the dow at 3500.....in the interview and i parapjhrase  "  If the dow ever exceeded 4000 it would prove that i didnt know what i was talking about ...and therefore no one should ever listen to me again."      lets put an end to any reference  to EWT eh

Just because someone made a mistake in their interpretation of the E wave doesn't mean we should throw out the baby with the bath water, this is just plain ludicrous!


Blessings,

 

blu

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#9 blustar

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 03:06 PM

I use calendar days, peaks and troughs and for the Dow the actual average recent cycle lengths for the lows using a data set starting at May 2 1921 are 19.2 &11.7 years, 74.6 & 24.3, months, 40.5 and 20.8 weeks and 72,0, 40.8, 21.0 and 10.8 calendar days.  The sum of the longer cycles is a sigma calculation.  Using the same data set for highs is 17.4 and 8.7 years, 51 and 18.2 months, 48.4 and 30.4 weeks, and 80.5, 38.8, 18.7 and 9.2 calendar days. The last 80 day low was in late June and the last 40 day low was August 9-10.  For the highs it is not clear yet.  The window for the next 40 day high is mid October.  We probably saw the cluster with the 20 week lows last week or the week prior.

 

The last 80 and 40 day lows in the COMPX for example were the August lows and the actual average cycle lengths for the lows are 72.5 and 38.8 calendar days.  The last 40 and 80 day highs are not clear, but are either of the highs in July and the average cycle lengths for the highs are 103.8 and 48.8 calendar days.  I use the composite model line for specific turn date projections, and it constantly changes given price action and the phasing of the actual cycle turns.

I have Oct 16 as a secondary top.


Blessings,

 

blu

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#10 da_cheif

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 03:17 PM

 

robert precter was interviewed buy barrons in 1994 with the dow at 3500.....in the interview and i parapjhrase  "  If the dow ever exceeded 4000 it would prove that i didnt know what i was talking about ...and therefore no one should ever listen to me again."      lets put an end to any reference  to EWT eh

Just because someone made a mistake in their interpretation of the E wave doesn't mean we should throw out the baby with the bath water, this is just plain ludicrous!

 

oh really?........his whole life has been the eptiome of ew misstakes....if rn elliot were alive today he would sue bob for ruining his good name along those ewavers who didnt see this coming







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