8 replies to this topic

[opinionated]

Not sure what I saw that encouraged me to take the position early,  As CLK pointed out in my first post. I certainly could have gotten a better entry!!  Rolling Eyes...  But I think this week favors the upside and the FOMC will help the case IMHO.  Whether it be a safe haven, or what have you I think the course is up.  I will not stick with this trade past this week because as Don said (Chief) the possibility of a major decline looks favorable on the charts. But Short term I think we are heading to 128.70 this week to close the gap, (130 IF NK get's stupid) Bearish sentiment also supports this thought. I will exit there with about an 80-90% return.  I also think we are about to take off to the upside in spx.  with a pause/pullback on or around the 22nd-23rd. build a next shelf to take us into Oct to set up the big decline I mentioned. I would rather be long TLT than SPX because chart patterns suggest both up this week, But holding a long position in SPX over night is dangerous with NK news that could drop it 25pts at anytime.  But TLT given the ST bullish set-up without NK, could only be helped by such news. Most here could give a crap what I think,  But I deal with the same thing from the Wife! 

 

Just babbling and sharing an opinion....

 

Best...

 

OP

Edited by opinionated, 17 September 2017 - 07:47 AM.

[kssmibotm]

I will exit there with about an 80-90% return.

OP

 

Really? What kind of leverage did you use to get that kind of return with TLT?

[NAV]

 

 

But I deal with the same thing from the Wife! 

 

Hey take it easy, will ya. That's a universal phenomenon. 

[Data]

There is a lot of supply of treasuries.  There were $56 billion auctioned this past week since the debt ceiling expired.   Another $115 billion over the the next two weeks is schedule.  Stocks were helped by the BOJ starting an end-of-year loan to banks for 5 trillion yen at the same time.  At some point, the supply will create pressure on assets since more is expected over the coming months.

[opinionated]

Options Kss... and I'm not banking on months Data... weeks... but thanks...

[risk_management]

In one of my conservative accounts I sell puts and covered calls on TLT and have basically took long position around the same time last week when you did.  But since then I have closed it and initiated TLT short via few months out puts in my other pure speculative account.  One of the reasons for it is this:

 

 

[opinionated]

Thanks RM,

 

In looking at the chart I see nothing bearish.. cautionary yes.  I would say Bond yield is looking to test the recent trouf say 1.8 ish?  Then a rally or failure. And the 10 year yield same thing except 1.75 ish...  Then depending on the action we see.  from what I have read the bears are about 6,500 positions and Bulls at around 3500 that tells me up first at minimum. But I think you may be thinking a bit more long term than I am.  I am looking out 15-30 days and believe as a place of safety the bonds will surpass the recent highs.  I am looking at 133-135 tlt by mid Oct.... As I think the US has no choice but to use the military option in NK.  As each day go's on this will be more and more the consensus. That is not the only thing I see, I think on a 4 hr. chart there is a kind of reliable buy signal on TLT. That and the FOMC this week will draw it up like a magnet.  This week I am thinking 128.50-70 without any further NK news. With any action by the US TLT will be looking down at 131 within days.

 

I Could very well be 100% wrong but this is how I see it.  And Don,... honestly thinks they are about to crash and like him or not he is not a good fade.

 

Best,  And nice to hear from you!

 

OP

[da_cheif]

as of frday   https://www.american...g=en&Ticker=TLT

[opinionated]

Thanks Chief,

 

Appreciated...