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A Microscopic Look at the Elliott Wave and the S&P 500

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#1 blustar

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 05:40 PM

A Microscopic Look at the Elliott Wave & the S&P 500
 
Most so called Elliotticians often times make incorrect wave counts because they don’t look at the microscopic waves that one sees at the 5 minute and even 1 minute bars.  While there can be alternative counts that work within the true wave structures as put forth by R.N. Elliott, most wavers are seeing far too many 5 wave counts in the current wave structure.  Since 2009, we’ve been in Cycle Wave 5, a 5-wave count going back to 1942. Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 5 ended late in 2014 and we have been in Primary Wave 4 ever since.
 
While there can be some 5 wave counts, especially in the last C Waves up, we are not in a true 5 wave count anymore and won’t be until Primary Wave 4 terminates. I don’t expect this will occur until early 2019.  This would place the final Primary Wave 5 terminus of Cycle Wave 5 sometime into early/mid 2020 (2020-22/23 should see a nasty bear market, the worst since 1929-32).
 
The charts below are 5 minute bars and 60 minute bars.
 
9_17_17_spx_5_min.png
 
 
9_17_17_spx-60_min.png

 
 
The 60 minute chart shows a topping distribution pattern from late July into early October and a bearish rising wedge. The blue XYZ pattern begs for higher prices into early December.  The cycles beg for another lower low late in the year around December 29 (SPX 2230). Right now, it seems to me that December 2017 will not be kind to the stock market and to a lesser extent, neither will mid October (Oct 12-23). December 2017 looks to have the same cycle as the October 2014 drop that was blamed on the Ebola scare. This cycle runs about 3 years, 2.5 months. Based on this cycle, Wave 4 won’t top out (Wave Y) until early August 2018 (Wave X being February 11, 2016).
 
My wave count has July 20 being the A Wave top of Y with B due by year end then C of Y (or an irregular top of Primary Wave 4) due by early August 2018 (near 2590/2600).  By early 2019, I see the 2073 area tested (about 20% down from the peak) creating a powerful running correction (testing the top of Primary Wave 3).
 
All indications suggest a final high in early 2020 of nearly 3750 SPX based on the Equality of Waves Principle of Waves 1 and 5 (time and price). If the final 5th wave is taken back to the Cycle Wave 4 bottom (666) that would portend an 82% drop just ahead (the 1929/32 drop was about 89%).
 
Regarding the NASDAQ 100, I see new highs into early/mid October after the late Sept lows are put in. This new high will likely not be confirmed by the majority of indices.
 
Regarding GDX, there is a 10 week low due soon.  While the daily indicators are negative, we may see an attempt to rally soon that will take GDX above the recent highs.
 
 


#2 fib_1618

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 06:32 PM

"3rd waves are ''wonders to behold'' and for many good reasons. Technically, this is the time where most analysts throw in the towel as price is now confirming what the internals told the analyst during wave 1 which was a change in direction was probable. This is also the time in which extremes in many indicators will show up - something in which I refer to as ''flags'' - which are later used in approximating the termination point of the entire 5 wave pattern sequence structure. In equities, these extremes will be measured in the raw data of both (cumulative) breadth and volume - and the strength or weakness of the indicators that use such information - as well as their relationship to each other. Price pattern wise, one will always be able to identify a third wave because of the fact that price patterns will break out of basic support or resistance areas that were previously controlling the price pattern up until that time. Psychologically, this is when the mind set is that we remember how we all got burned before and that in no way is this the start of a major move higher - also known as climbing the ''wall of worry''. Once the market gets high enough, people start throwing in the towel on their bearish mind set, and this continues to a point when all of the ''willing'' buyers are in the market. 3rd waves are also never the shortest wave in a 5 wave structure, and more times than not, are generally the longest wave in either price, percentage gain, or both, to what will eventually be the larger 5 wave pattern structure sequence overall."

 

nyud091517.png

 

nyad091517.png
 
naud091517.png
 
naad091517.png

 

Primer on Elliott Wave analysis: http://tinyurl.com/zpeshcy


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#3 dasein

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 07:48 PM

thx for the charts fib


best,
klh

#4 da_cheif

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 08:41 PM

>Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 5 ended late in 2014<      wrong wrong wrong    .....the epicenter of primary wave 3 up is under way off the 2nd wave that ended in 2009.....so it is written and so it shall be



#5 LarryT

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 05:35 AM

My opinion wave FOUR completed at the SP-500  twin 1810 area lows of 2014 and 2016. Wave FIVE can morph into a blow off extension and advance a lot higher than anyone thinks except da Chief, in his world there is no top.


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#6 da_cheif

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 05:48 AM

My opinion wave FOUR completed at the SP-500  twin 1810 area lows of 2014 and 2016. Wave FIVE can morph into a blow off extension and advance a lot higher than anyone thinks except da Chief, in his world there is no top.

LT'S opinion     .......lol



#7 fib_1618

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 10:58 AM

.....the epicenter of primary wave 3 up is under way off the 2nd wave that ended in 2009.....so it is written and so it shall be

 

And the internals continue to support this idea.

 

Fib


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#8 andr99

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 11:10 AM

>Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 5 ended late in 2014<      wrong wrong wrong    .....the epicenter of primary wave 3 up is under way off the 2nd wave that ended in 2009.....so it is written and so it shall be

 

it seems the epicenter of primary wave three up....is like a deity......it was, it is.....and it will ever be


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N.....though partly langbardic


#9 da_cheif

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 11:55 AM

 

>Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 5 ended late in 2014<      wrong wrong wrong    .....the epicenter of primary wave 3 up is under way off the 2nd wave that ended in 2009.....so it is written and so it shall be

 

it seems the epicenter of primary wave three up....is like a deity......it was, it is.....and it will ever be

 

dominus vo biscum



#10 blustar

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 01:14 PM

The SPX is making quite another of those strange and long 'bull 'flags' today. Today is TD 28 from the last top.  A perfect 6 week (Hurst 6 week- Gann 32 -2) would suggest Wednesday this week for the top.  The last 55 TD turn (due Sept 20) came on July 3rd then dropped for two days. Hadik is looking for a low this week between the 18th-22nd. The rising wedge fits perfectly between 2517 Wed and 2464 Friday

The indicators are suggesting higher prices over the next few days.  It is quite common to rally into the FOMC announcement.  If it does this (which it looks like), we may see prices as high as 2517/18 before the top comes in.
 

I'm waiting to bail out of shorts and go long later today after this pull back. UVXY is down over 7%.  SVXY is up higher than I expected.
 

 

I strongly disagree with Wave 3 being past Nov 2014 because I have done the microscopic work I have done ever since the 5 wave bulls from the 1980's and nowhere can it be shown internally that we are still in wave 3 of 5.  The only thing it can be is a strong running correcting in the wave 4 position.







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