28 replies to this topic

[NAV]

 

Swisstrader,

 

Obsession with Gurus aside, have you done a system testing of DeMark indicators ? Can you publish a test report of that ? 

 

I know you have not. 

 

NAV - in all fairness, have you?

 

If you did would be nice if you posted your analysis.

 

A lurker

 

 

 

jacek,

 

I have followed all these analysts for a long long time (more than 10 years in some of the cases). My comments are based on those experiences. Not just shooting from the hip. About 10 years ago, i stopped paying any attention to them, Complete waste of time IMO.

 

 

If you want a more objective analysis of some of the Gurus, here it is,

 

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

[NAV]

It's these kind of predictions which make me call them clueless as anybody else.

 

http://stockmarketad...style-collapse/

 

My comments are not directed toward any methodology but at the top/bottom predictions that these Gurus make with great inaccuracy !

Edited by NAV, 19 September 2017 - 12:59 PM.

[SemiBizz]

TD Sequential | Trading Indicator (Countdown & Exit)

 

He's been thoroughly tested.

[NAV]

TD Sequential | Trading Indicator (Countdown & Exit)

 

He's been thoroughly tested.

 

Now that's the kind of stuff i would love to read. Not the top/bottom predictions they do on CNBC.

[Spectacular Bid]

_{The point of not listening to Guru's is well taken. On the other hand Prechter, Dent, Rogers and Hussman belong to a club all their own. Nenner is a total character who has never made a wrong call. Demark has made a lot of good calls and some bad one's but at least he has a methodology and you generally know when he's wrong, still better to stick with your own stuff..}

Edited by Spectacular Bid, 19 September 2017 - 01:08 PM.

[NAV]

Just went through the link that SemiBizz posted. 

 

Look at the contour maps in Figure 2 

 

https://oxfordstrat....d-sequential-3/

 

Look at the CAGR and Max drawdown charts/numbers for those who are interested in system performance. The system has a negative CAGR and a deep drawdown beyond anybody's comfort level.

[OEXCHAOS]

A couple things here. First of all, if you expect to make any real money selling research retail, you've got to give the media something interesting and a lot of outlandish "man bites dog" calls. The top calls are the most popular, too. They're most likely to be horribly wrong. But it's the way the business has worked since the flood.

 

A lot of these guys do, however, know what they're talking about. Some are outright brilliant. Most have some wisdom to share. It's just that that knowledge isn't of interest to the media nor much of the retail market.

 

Now, I have to objectively agree that those making outlandish calls in the media are generally to be ignored-- in fact, these calls are designed to have emotional appeal to you rather than rational value. They should have no part in our day to day trading.

 

BUT, and this is important, a lot of our readers and participants here are pros, including yours truly. This board has ALWAYS been "guru friendly" since the days of Carl Swenlin (another brilliant guru) running it. One of our founding principles in our TOS is "we don't beat up on people for being wrong." There's good reasons for that rule and one is that I wouldn't mind one or more of these guys or others popping in and sharing a thought or two. I've learned from so many who have in the past. But if we devolve into wholesale abuse of every guru out there, well, we're not going to get any of them coming by and a lot of our existing contributors will pack it in too--why should they subject themselves to the abuse?

 

So, please, so a modicum of respect (unless someone is being a self-serving hack and misrepresenting themselves) for the pros, even if they don't participate here. Ok?

[NAV]

A couple things here. First of all, if you expect to make any real money selling research retail, you've got to give the media something interesting and a lot of outlandish "man bites dog" calls. The top calls are the most popular, too. They're most likely to be horribly wrong. But it's the way the business has worked since the flood.

 

A lot of these guys do, however, know what they're talking about. Some are outright brilliant. Most have some wisdom to share. It's just that that knowledge isn't of interest to the media nor much of the retail market.

 

Now, I have to objectively agree that those making outlandish calls in the media are generally to be ignored-- in fact, these calls are designed to have emotional appeal to you rather than rational value. They should have no part in our day to day trading.

 

BUT, and this is important, a lot of our readers and participants here are pros, including yours truly. This board has ALWAYS been "guru friendly" since the days of Carl Swenlin (another brilliant guru) running it. One of our founding principles in our TOS is "we don't beat up on people for being wrong." There's good reasons for that rule and one is that I wouldn't mind one or more of these guys or others popping in and sharing a thought or two. I've learned from so many who have in the past. But if we devolve into wholesale abuse of every guru out there, well, we're not going to get any of them coming by and a lot of our existing contributors will pack it in too--why should they subject themselves to the abuse?

 

So, please, so a modicum of respect (unless someone is being a self-serving hack and misrepresenting themselves) for the pros, even if they don't participate here. Ok?

 

 

Mark,

 

Understood. 

 

I have my own role models in the world of trading. It's just that they are not from the list that i mentioned above. 

[Geomean]

Several have inquired about backtesting the DeMark Indicators, especially the TD Sequential™.

Here is a link to the 2014 Ph.D. Dissertation of Marco Lissandrin (his examiner was Didier Sornette, who has done notable work on predicting market crashes using power law math) entitled "Statistical Testing of DeMark Indicators in Commodity Futures Markets". Lissandrin's approach is intriguing in part due to the way he addresses exiting after an entry signal for his calculations.  In system testing or back testing of any single component, all of the components, i.e. entry rule(s), stop loss amounts, profit targets, and exit rules need to be evaluated,  Note that Lissandrin followed DeMark's conservative entry rule and waited for a price flip, i.e. a close higher/lower than the prior four closes, as an entry rule.

https://www.ethz.ch/...hesis_final.pdf

ATB
Geo          

[Iblayz]

A couple things here. First of all, if you expect to make any real money selling research retail, you've got to give the media something interesting and a lot of outlandish "man bites dog" calls. The top calls are the most popular, too. They're most likely to be horribly wrong. But it's the way the business has worked since the flood.

 

A lot of these guys do, however, know what they're talking about. Some are outright brilliant. Most have some wisdom to share. It's just that that knowledge isn't of interest to the media nor much of the retail market.

 

Now, I have to objectively agree that those making outlandish calls in the media are generally to be ignored-- in fact, these calls are designed to have emotional appeal to you rather than rational value. They should have no part in our day to day trading.

 

BUT, and this is important, a lot of our readers and participants here are pros, including yours truly. This board has ALWAYS been "guru friendly" since the days of Carl Swenlin (another brilliant guru) running it. One of our founding principles in our TOS is "we don't beat up on people for being wrong." There's good reasons for that rule and one is that I wouldn't mind one or more of these guys or others popping in and sharing a thought or two. I've learned from so many who have in the past. But if we devolve into wholesale abuse of every guru out there, well, we're not going to get any of them coming by and a lot of our existing contributors will pack it in too--why should they subject themselves to the abuse?

 

So, please, so a modicum of respect (unless someone is being a self-serving hack and misrepresenting themselves) for the pros, even if they don't participate here. Ok?

 

Amen bro. There are some here who stick their neck out and makes "calls" and "fearless forecasts". Personally, I don't ridicule anyone's call when he/she has the nerve to lay it out there, knowing full well that the market can make easily make the forecast look completely foolish within a very short period of time. And then there are the "ankle-biting buttheads" that NEVER make any kind off prediction at all. But it makes them feel "oh so special" and important to publicly rip another poster or a big name. Those who pop up from time-to-time to do nothing more than that are just plain worthless. Pretty soon, that is all that will be left here. We are more than halfway there now.